The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting eight to 14 named tropical systems, of which three to six will become hurricanes and one to three will be Category 3 or higher.
“The main driver behind this forecast is the El Niño phenomenon,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs.
El Nino is likely to emerge this summer, characterized by a wave of warm water spanning the Pacific Ocean. That expansion of the warm ocean rearranges weather patterns around the world. In the case of the tropical Atlantic, El Niño stimulates winds that make it difficult for storms to move around. People who do this can sometimes break away from what is going on in the upper atmosphere. (The opposite is true in the Pacific, and NOAA is predicting very active weather in that ocean basin.)
During the last three Super El Niños, accumulated cyclone energy – a metric that factors in the strength and longevity of storms – was well below normal.
That said, El Niño, while extremely strong, is only one of many factors affecting hurricane season. Warm local ocean temperatures can help storms form and gain strength, and the Atlantic is currently warmer than normal.
Additionally, Saharan dust can pollute the atmosphere and prevent storms from forming. It is also very difficult to predict when its storm will arise. This was the case last year, when the number of named storms was below average despite active forecasting. Despite less activity than expected, last year still produced Hurricane Melissa, one of the most powerful hurricanes ever to hit the Atlantic basin.
All this means that seasonal forecasts are a useful guide to what to expect, and it’s great for federal and state agencies to determine supplies and resources in advance. But it’s what happens with individual storms that ultimately matters.
“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s important to understand that it only takes one time,” Jacobs said, noting that even in calm years, Category 5 hurricanes are still making landfall.
The Trump administration has reduced the number of employees at NOAA and reduced the collection of some data, such as weather balloons, that could affect forecasts. Jacobs noted the importance of the new observations, which also include aerial drones that will be deployed operationally for the first time.
NOAA has also increased the use of artificial intelligence weather models trained on historical data. During the 2025 hurricane season, the agency tested an experimental hurricane model developed with Google DeepMind. Late last year, it also introduced a suite of AI weather models to use in operational forecasting in addition to traditional weather models, which use equations to predict weather.
The agency says an AI version of its flagship model provides better predictions of the tracks of tropical cyclones – the common name for hurricanes – although it lags traditional weather models in predicting their intensity.
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