Potential Tropical Storm Could Bring a Major Flood Threat to the South

The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on a disturbance in South Texas that could soon become the first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Federal forecasters expect several days of heavy to “severe” rain to inundate much of the south, putting the region at “significant flood risk.”

As of 8 a.m. ET Tuesday, the system was producing disorganized rain and storms over a large area centered in South Texas, according to the NHC. Forecasts show it tracking northeastward along the Texas coast and potentially emerging into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by the afternoon or evening. There is a 60% chance the disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, but its development will depend on how long it remains in the warm waters of the Gulf, meteorologist Ben Noll reports for the Washington Post.

If the system develops into a named storm, it will be called Arthur. But “[r]”Despite the formation of the tropical cyclone, those interested in southern and eastern Texas, Louisiana and southern portions of Mississippi should prepare for a period of intense rainfall over the next several days that could cause widespread, life-threatening flash, urban and river flooding,” NHC said in an update Tuesday morning.

Atmospheric moisture levels will be *abundant* across the South this week, with the potential for widespread flooding rain across a corridor from Texas to the Carolinas.

In some areas, a record-breaking 4 inches of rainfall is expected, indicating a waterlogged environment. pic.twitter.com/tKuFyV8SLy

– Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) June 15, 2026

an already fatal condition becomes more acute

The National Weather Service has issued a flood watch from South Texas to the southeastern part of the state, most of Louisiana and south-central Mississippi. Over the next three days, the agency expects the storm’s total rainfall amounts to be five to seven inches (12.7 to 17.8 centimeters) in Louisiana and locally higher amounts along the Texas coastline.

By Friday, local areas within the storm’s path could see more than a foot (30.5 centimeters) of rain, Knoll reports. Cities preparing for its arrival include Houston, Texas; Lafayette, Louisiana; Jackson, Mississippi; Montgomery, Alabama; and Atlanta, Georgia.

This slow-moving storm is carrying abundant tropical moisture, which suggests it is likely to cause flooding even if it does not develop into a tropical cyclone. As all this moisture collides with a cold front stalled over the interior of the Gulf Coast, it will produce excessive rainfall regardless of the organization of the storm.

We’re already seeing this play out in Texas, where flooding began on Monday from Austin to the Rio Grande Valley, San Antonio and Waco, Knoll reports. According to CNN Weather, rescue crews recovered the body of a woman whose vehicle was swept into a creek northwest of San Antonio that morning, and there have been reports of water rescues in Texas and Louisiana since Sunday.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration for 101 counties on Monday, “to ensure that local officials and communities have access to the full range of state resources and assistance,” he said in a statement.

new normal of the south

This could be the first of several deadly flooding incidents in the south this year. El Niño, which officially developed in the Pacific last week, typically brings stormy weather and heavy rainfall to the south as the jet stream shifts southward. Forecasters believe this El Niño could become one of the strongest on record, and the stronger it gets, the more significant its weather impacts could be.

At the same time, human-driven climate change is forcing the atmosphere to retain more moisture, making it easier for such water-logged storm systems to form. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, from 1958 to 2012, the Southeast saw a 27% increase in the amount of precipitation occurring in very heavy events.

In recent years, such events have shown that major hurricanes are not the only storms that can have devastating impacts. In June 2025, a disorganized storm system loaded with residual moisture from Tropical Storm Barry caused deadly flash flooding in the Texas Hill Country, killing more people than would have been caused by freshwater flooding from Hurricane Helene.

As a stronger El Niño unfolds against the backdrop of climate change, the South could face particularly dangerous heat. States’ disaster preparedness and recovery systems will be tested this week, but they will need to be flexible as frequent, severe storms strain resources.