John Oliver takes an eye-opening deep dive into predictions markets

The betting market, which essentially allows users to gamble on almost anything, is growing. But what are the ethics of companies that allow people to bet on the possibility of nuclear war?

In the latest episode of last week tonight John Oliver highlights that exact question, while also exploring other issues – such as the potential for insider trading – faced by major platforms Kalshi and Polymarket.

“It seems like right now we’ve effectively got gambling sites operating even in states where gambling is illegal, and placing bets on things that there have been laws against for over a decade,” Oliver says in the clip above. “There are a number of cases moving through the courts right now, but it’s unclear how they will be resolved, and it will likely be before the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, Congress is considering several proposals to deal with aspects of this issue, although given that the President of the United States has a child who is currently advising both major companies, I wouldn’t hold your breath.”

Oliver says the chances of meaningful policy change seem unlikely in the near future.

“But at some point we need to put up some basic guardrails here. And until then, if we can’t change the way these sites operate, we should at least try and change how we view them individually. One thing that would obviously help is if news organizations would stop tarnishing the reputations of these companies by putting their odds on the screen as if they’re real news,” the host continues.

“Look, on a personal level, if you are considering using these markets to gamble, try and remember that statistically you are likely to lose money. And although I am not against gambling, there is something so serious about these sites that they turn every aspect of our lives into bets. Because sure, money can be won on them. But when that happens, something is also lost. Especially in a society where things are supposed to be done only in financial terms. And where people engage with the news, not just what it means to humans. Because they have $50 on it and when something unexpected happens in the world, it would be really nice not to automatically question whether it’s just because someone is trying to move the market.”

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