Throughout the latter half of the season, we’ve been keeping an eye on the NFL’s MVP race. And throughout the latter half of the season, there has been a favorite.
When we did this exercise last week, for example, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford had -220 odds at DraftKings, giving him an implied 68.8% chance of taking home the trophy.
What a difference a week makes. Stafford’s poor performance on “Monday Night Football” in the Rams’ loss to the Atlanta Falcons, combined with Drake Mays’ five-touchdown explosion against the New York Jets has completely flipped the narrative and the race.
In the space below, we’ll check out the odds and scenarios one last time this season, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook,
NFL Week 18 picks and score predictions: Ravens-Steelers go down to the wire
john breech
Drake Maye (-400)
Maye’s -400 odds at DraftKings give him an 80% chance of winning MVP. That’s more than Stafford has been on the MVP clock at any time in the latter part of the season.
Something very improbable would have to happen for Mei not to win in the final week of the season, unless the voting turned out to be significantly different from what the oddsmakers were expecting. Basically, unless he is completely destroyed, the prize is his to lose. If Mays has a representative performance against the Dolphins on Sunday, he’ll likely take it home.
Matthew Stafford (+300)
Stafford entered “Monday Night Football” as the favorite for the award, despite the fact that Mayes had only thrown five touchdown passes and his own team was in third place in its own division. But his three-interception game in the loss to the Falcons ruined everything. Now, he needs to come from behind to win.
The Rams plan to play at least some of their starters in Week 18, Sean McVay said after the loss to Atlanta, but it will be interesting to see if he sticks to that. In the past the Rams have generally rested guys when only seeding was on the line in the final weeks of the season.
If Stafford plays, he probably needs to have his best game of the year to remind people why he was the favorite up until this week, and he also needs Mays to have a loss against the Dolphins.
Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams (+18000)
Justin Herbert and Josh Allen (+30000)
Sam Darnold and Bo Nicks (+40000)
According to these odds, Lawrence and Williams each have a 0.55% chance of winning MVP. Herbert and Allen have a 0.33% chance. And Darnold and the Knicks have a 0.25% chance.
In other words, none of them are going to win, and they probably won’t even come close. But he’s likely to get some down-ballot votes, and what happens this weekend will go a long way in determining whether those votes are third, fourth or fifth place votes.
If Lawrence and/or Williams can help their team clinch the No. 2 seed in the conference, that could help them move up the board. If Allen plays and wears his Superman cape, the reigning MVP could remind people what he’s capable of.
Given how much credit the teams receive for their defenses and head coaches for their successes, it seems unlikely that Darnold and the Knicks will land on the ballot at all, but if they perform well enough to clinch the top seeds in their respective conferences, they could certainly get there.
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