As Formula 1 prepares to race under lights for the final round of the 2025 season, what do the odds say about who will win in Qatar? Read on to find out…
Odds are provided by F1’s official betting data supplier ALT Sports Data, are subject to change and are presented in decimal form: for every $1 bet you will win the figure represented by the odds; So, if Verstappen is the favorite at 1.50, you will win $1.50 for every dollar bet.
chances of winning
Max Verstappen has faced his toughest campaign since winning his first Drivers’ Championship in 2021. However, for a challenging year, their record looks fine. The Dutchman is fresh off his sixth win and has put himself in the title race with two weekends remaining. He enters Qatar as the most in-form driver on the grid with an average of 2.70 over the last 10 races and 80% top-three returns in that period. Their reputation has increased with four wins in the last seven matches.
Lando Norris is moving down the handicap list this week after an unfortunate trip to the States. He and his teammate, Oscar Piastri, were ultimately both disqualified after last weekend’s race because their cars failed to comply with technical regulations. However, if you erase the DSQ next to his name, you see that Norris has a respectable record through the final weekend of 2025. He lines up with four podiums in his last five starts, including wins in Mexico and Brazil.
At the opposite end of the performance spectrum, we face Piastri, who finished in the top three at Monza last time out. But the Australian is tied for the most wins this year with seven, and has finished in the top three in his last two visits to Lusail.
Podium finish chances
George Russell had to settle for second place last time out, but the result gave the Briton his ninth top 10 of the year, reducing his overall finishing average to 4.45 in 22 races. Russell has the talent and speed to finish on the podium, but his historical record here shows he has failed to finish in the top three in his two previous visits. Staying with Mercedes, we must congratulate Kimi Antonelli on recording his third podium of the season, his first of back-to-back returns. The Italian has recorded four top sixes in the last five, including two at the Rostrum.
In contrast, Charles Leclerc missed the podium by one place in the previous round. However, it was a solid effort to bounce back after his DNF in Brazil. The Monegasque has achieved seven finishes between the first three racers and was second at this circuit 12 months ago. He will be desperate to put in a better performance this time.
Chances of making it to the top six
Carlos Sainz followed up his performance into the final round to achieve his second top six of the campaign. The Spaniard looked like a class act throughout the weekend, culminating in a comeback finish in fifth place. His issue has been consistency as he has failed to cross the line on three occasions and has finished outside the top 10 in nine of the 22 rounds.
Credit also goes to Lewis Hamilton, who moved up 11 places to finish eighth at Nevada. It has been a tough season for the seven-time world champion, but after starting from 19th on the grid, he showed his class in the last outing. He lines up with nine top-six finishes at the Lusail International Circuit.
Rookie Isak Hadjar entered the top six in Round 22 for the third time this year. It was the first time that a Racing Bulls driver had achieved this milestone following his first F1 podium in the Netherlands.
Keeping up with the youth, Ollie Bearman finished a run of two top six races a week ago and finished 10th. He is one of the players to watch in this category as he has hit three top sixes in the last eight matches.
From youth to experience, Fernando Alonso returned to a circuit where he had never finished outside the top 10. His worst finish was seventh in 2024, but he achieved a podium finish here in 2021 and finished sixth two years later.
Possibility of reaching top-10
Another experienced hand on the grid is Nico Hulkenberg, whose tail leads the way heading into the final weekend of the calendar. The German has finished in the top 10 three times in his last four starts and has gained eight overall on the year. At Williams, Alex Albon was one of our shining lights in the midfield at the start of the season, but he struggled on the backend and last finished in the top 10 at Monza.
Haas senior Esteban Ocon has fought valiantly to cross the line in ninth place twice in the last three rounds. The Frenchman has mixed in the top 10 finishers on eight occasions this season, and has a best finish of fifth in China. Yuki Tsunoda also remains a possibility for the top 10, but has missed the grade in recent attempts, finishing 12th in Mexico and 11th last weekend. He has crossed the line as one of the first 10 cars in six Grands Prix this year, being the last car to come into Austin.
Probability of who will be fastest in qualifying
Leading the previous round, Verstappen had the lead when it came to pole position and had seven scalps to his name. Heading to Qatar, Norris has now joined the club after clocking the fastest time in qualifying in Las Vegas. However, the picture looks darker for Norris at Lusail, where he has never started a race from the front row. Verstappen, on the other hand, took pole in 2023 and started his last outing in second place.
Piastri, a five-time front row starter this year, remains a possibility, but the Papaya cars have generally struggled to tame the Red Bull and Mercedes drivers in qualifying in Qatar.
Odds for the winning team
Red Bull and Verstappen have won four of the last seven races, so their chances look good in Doha as well. They arrive at the Lusail International Circuit looking for a hat-trick of wins at this track. Mercedes’ only other win in Qatar came courtesy of Hamilton in the inaugural edition of this race.
The 2025 teams’ champions, McLaren, have never captured a teams trophy here, although Piastri were runner-up here in 2023. While fans would love to see Ferrari win at least one race this year, the odds are strong against them finishing in a place where they have yet to take top honors.
Likely to be the best of the rest
If the Drivers’ Championship wasn’t exciting enough, the midfield races have brought endless entertainment this year, with many racers having standout moments. Albon took the crown in the division after defeating his peers in five races this year.
Alonso trails Albon with four midfield wins this season – his last win came in Singapore, and this weekend he returns to a position where he has never finished outside the top 10. Hulkenberg, another veteran, has topped the midfield battle on three occasions this year. His most recent performance was in Austin, and he is in line for consecutive top 10 finishes.
Sprint victory chances
Qatar hosts the final sprint of the year and every point is important for the Drivers’ Championship contenders. Two of those drivers in the hunt, Verstappen and Norris, have stood on the podium in three of the five sprints, twice as winners.
Hamilton is the only other driver to bathe in glory after a sprint win in 2025, having capped the early part of the campaign in China. However, Ferrari’s latest recruit has finished outside the top six places in two of the last three sprints. Ultimately, Piastri finished second in Shanghai, Miami and Spain, but has failed to finish the last two editions of the 100 km race.
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