What will it take for the Steelers to make the playoffs?

PITTSBURGH – A division that had been moving away from the Pittsburgh Steelers for weeks officially changed on Sunday. After the Steelers’ loss to the Chicago Bears and the Baltimore Ravens’ win over the New York Jets, both Baltimore and Pittsburgh are at 6–5. However, due to tiebreakers, the Ravens lead the AFC North while the Steelers are eighth in the seven-team playoff field.

The wildcard spots are currently occupied by a trio of 7-4 teams: the Los Angeles Chargers (who own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Steelers), the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills. Meanwhile, the 6-5 Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs look to take on the Steelers.

So what does Pittsburgh need to do to reach the playoffs?

according to athletic’s In the NFL Playoff Simulator, the Steelers currently have an 18 percent chance of making the postseason, a 14 percent chance of winning the AFC North and a four percent shot at the wildcard. I spent more time playing in the simulator than I wanted to. Let’s take a deeper look at the scenarios to see which games are most important, how many more wins the Steelers need to feel comfortable and why Sunday’s game against the Bills is almost looking like a must-win.

Taking care of business in winnable games 8-9: >1 percent

The Steelers only have the advantage in two more games this season: home field against the Miami Dolphins in Week 15 and against the Cleveland Browns in Week 17. Winning just those two almost certainly won’t be enough. The model gives the Steelers less than a one percent chance if they only beat the Browns and Dolphins.

Different types of 9-8: 4 to 21 percent

If the Steelers win three more games this year, their chances depend on which opponent they beat. If they take care of business against the Dolphins and Browns and split the season series with the Ravens, the Steelers will have a 21 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, a 17 percent chance of winning the division and a four percent chance of claiming a wildcard spot.

Wins against the Dolphins, Browns and Bills would give the Steelers a 12 percent chance to win the division, a two percent chance and a 10 percent shot as a wildcard team. If their third win comes against the NFC (Lions), their chances are only four percent.

baltimore factor

The Steelers and Ravens often split season series. But it’s worth examining what happens if one team wins both meetings, to illustrate just how important those matchups are. If Pittsburgh beats the Ravens, the Steelers can lose every other game, finish 8-9 and still have a 53 percent chance of making the playoffs. A win over the Ravens, plus any additional wins, increases those odds to 86 to 88 percent.

On the other hand, if the Steelers lose to the Ravens, their chances look bleak. If they lose both games to the Ravens, but beat the rest of the AFC teams (Bills, Dolphins, Browns) to go 9-8, their chances of making the tournament are still only 12 percent. If the third win comes against the NFC (Lions), that’s less than four percent.

They will likely get four more wins in: 72-90 percent

The Steelers should be in pretty good shape coming off a 10-7 season, no matter how they get those four wins. Worst-case scenario, if the Steelers lose both games to the Ravens but win the other four, they will have a 72 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Wins over the Bills, Dolphins, Browns and Ravens would increase the Steelers’ chances to 88 percent. This scenario keeps the wildcard and the division in play, as the Steelers would have a 50 percent chance of winning the AFC North and a 38 percent chance of earning a wildcard spot.

After this week: 12 to 30 percent

Looking at the next game alone, if the Steelers beat the Bills, their chances increase to 30 percent. They would pick up the AFC win, clean up a path to 10 wins, and have a head-to-head tiebreaker against any other team competing for the wildcard spot. But if they lose this week, their chances drop to 12 percent.

What did we learn?

The Steelers appear headed for a 9-8 or 10-7 season. The difference between those two results is probably the difference between making or missing the playoffs. If the Steelers are going to make the playoffs, their clearest path is to win against the Bills, Dolphins, Browns and Ravens or sweep the Ravens. That makes this week’s game against the Bills virtually must-win. If they don’t win this week, they either have to sweep the Ravens or get a Very Of help.