United States soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke has been arrested and charged with betting on the prediction market Polymarket using classified information related to the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The US Army Special Forces master sergeant, who was directly involved in the planning and execution of the operation, reportedly made a profit of $409,881.
According to the Justice Department, Van Dyke created a Polymarket account around December 26, 2025, and placed 13 Maduro-related bets from December 27 to January 2. He took a “yes” position on several Polymarket bets, including “US troops in Venezuela … by January 31, 2026”, “Maduro out … by January 31, 2026”, “Will US invade Venezuela by January 31” and “Trump invokes war powers against Venezuela by January 31.” US forces captured Maduro and his wife on January 3.
Van Dyke reportedly wagered a total of $33,034 and earned ten times that amount from his winnings. On the day Maduro was captured, he withdrew his money from Polymarket and then sent it to an overseas crypto vault before depositing it into a new online brokerage account.
Soon after Maduro was captured, reports emerged of how an anonymous gambler made nearly half a million dollars before the announcement, raising concerns that someone had profited from insider military knowledge. The Justice Department says Van Dyke tried to cover his tracks. After reports about possible insider bets were published, he reportedly asked Polymarket to delete his account, falsely claiming that he had lost access to the email he used. He also changed the email address associated with his crypto account to another address that was not associated with his name.
Van Dyke is charged with three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, each of which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison. He is also charged with one count of wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison, as well as one count of unlawful monetary transactions, which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years.
Prediction marketplaces have struggled with insider trading problems, and this is not the first incident. Recently, Kalshi took action against three political candidates, accusing them of insider trading related to their campaigns. Matt Klein of Minnesota and Ezekiel Enriquez of Texas could face a fine of less than $1,000 and a suspension of up to five years. Virginia’s Mark Moran, meanwhile, faces disciplinary action, a five-year suspension and a fine of more than $6,000.
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