Moran claims he was inspired to pull the stunt after witnessing market manipulation on Polymarket related to the 2025 New York mayoral race. He says the intended goal was to raise awareness of how prediction markets are “contributing to the further development of our society.” Describing his decision, Moran framed it as a kind of avant-garde campaign strategy that tested the limits of the “all press is good press” theory. “I’ve been waiting for months to get attention,” says Moran. “Because in politics, money gets attention, but I know how to get it organically. It only costs $100 to get you on the phone, right?”
In the notice of disciplinary action against Moran sent by the company to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi claimed that the politician had purchased event contracts in markets related to his candidacy and promoted them on social media. Kalshi noted that Moran was fined $6,229.30 and banned from the platform for five years after “refusing to resolve the matter through compromise.”
Moran claims he stopped talking to Kalshi because he objected to the company’s settlement terms. “They wanted me to make a public statement,” he says. “That’s what I pushed back on, it’s a violation of my First Amendment rights to compel my speech.” (Public statements are often included in the terms of legal settlements.) Kalshi declined to comment.
The other two enforcement actions that Kalshi announced today, against candidates in congressional races in the Minnesota Democratic primary and the Texas Republican primary, were settled after the accused paid small fines. In another batch of cases announced in February, Kalshi revealed it had fined far-right Republican politician and former California gubernatorial candidate Kyle Langford for market manipulation. In an interview with WIRED, Langford described his business as a “campaign gimmick”.
Moran says that if elected, he plans to work on legislation to strengthen the guardrails around prediction markets. There is currently a nationwide political battle going on over what rules the industry will have to follow. Several states have filed lawsuits against leading companies in the sector, alleging that they are running unlicensed gambling operations.
There is also growing concern about insider trading in political markets. New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order on Wednesday banning state government employees from insider trading, following similar orders in California and Illinois.
Although he changed his affiliation from Democrat to Independent at the beginning of the month, Moran is still listed as a candidate in the Kalashe market for the Virginia Democratic primary. Its probability is currently 1 percent.
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