In a statement translated by Gizmodo, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) officially announced the onset of El Nino today. The JMA is the first major weather organization to make this call. According to the statement, Japan is experiencing higher than normal temperatures across the country as a result of higher than average surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
On Monday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimated there was an 82% chance of El Nino emerging in June. The agency is supposed to release an updated El Nino forecast on Thursday, but the U.S. is still weeks away from a formal El Nino declaration, according to former NOAA meteorologist Alan Gerard.
El Nino looks inevitable
NOAA does not declare an El Niño until sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region – the primary part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean used to track El Niño and La Niña – are expected to be at least 0.9 °F (0.5 °C) above average five consecutive times over a three-month period.
Still, the atmosphere is already showing some clear signs of El Niño, Gerard reports. Three named storms have formed in the eastern Pacific within the past 10 days, marking an early, active start to the basin’s hurricane season.
The first, Tropical Storm Amanda, arrived on June 3 and has since dissipated. Tropical Storm Boris arrived on Monday and reached Mexico’s Pacific coast on Tuesday, bringing heavy rain and the threat of flooding. Now, the National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Storm Christina as it moves west just south of the coast of El Salvador, threatening to bring more heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides to Central America.
Increased hurricane activity in the Pacific basin is a symptom of El Niño because higher than average sea surface temperatures cause the ocean to send more heat into the atmosphere, helping storms organize and intensify.
Other atmospheric signs of El Niño include weakened easterly trade winds, reduced clouds and precipitation over Indonesia, and increased clouds and precipitation over the central or eastern Pacific basin. According to NOAA’s Monday update, some of these anomalies are taking shape. The agency points to changes in precipitation and clouds consistent with more convection in the central and eastern Pacific and suppressed convection in parts of the western Pacific, which could signal the beginning of an El Niño transition.
Models point to monster El Nino
In the weeks ahead of summer, model predictions for El Niño have intensified, raising the possibility that this El Niño could be the strongest on record. The latest data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are rising by 6.8 degrees Fahrenheit (3.8 degrees Celsius) on average by December.
Such an event would blow El Nino out of the water, no pun intended. Meteorologists have warned that this could lead to more frequent and intense extreme weather events, record-breaking global temperatures and major food shortages.
It’s still too early to tell how severe this El Nino will be, but the fact that a major weather agency has already made the call suggests that others may be behind it, too.
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