Mason Miller tops all pitchers? CJ Abrams goes 30-100-30? Don’t be surprised

Each week in MLB has its own story – full of surprises, both positive and negative – and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Maybe we can help. Don’t be surprised if any of these ideas come true…!

Don’t be surprised… If San Diego Padres RHP Mason Miller Is the Best Pitcher fantasy baseball In this weather

It certainly wouldn’t be bold to say that Miller is on top preventivewill be? So, let’s shoot for the stars here. It’s going to take some major statistical effort, but Miller, who as of Wednesday had not allowed a single earned run in his previous 29⅔ innings (dating back to last August), isn’t the only one shining in run prevention. He has faced 27 hitters this season, allowing one Luis Aráez single, one Spencer Torkelson walk – and That’s it! Miller has fanned 20 of 27 hitters, or 74.1%. No other relief pitcher has whiffed more than 45% of the time.

There is no precedent for any relief pitcher – at least in this century, with fewer innings pitched than Hall of Famers Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter – to finish ahead of every starting pitcher in fantasy points or roto/category formats. Baltimore Orioles LHP Zack Britton famously posted a 0.54 ERA and 47 saves in 2016, but he finished second among relievers to Kenley Johnson and ninth among pitchers (credit to Tristan H. Cockcroft for research). Seattle Mariners RHP Edwin Diaz was the No. 5 pitcher in 2018 when he saved 57 wins with a 1.96 ERA. Mariano Rivera has never finished first among pitchers in fantasy. Even after winning the NL Cy Young Award in 2003, Eric Gagne did not.

However, baseball was different in 2003, when 44 pitchers reached 200 IP and five won 20 games. Last season, only three pitchers surpassed 200 innings pitched, and none won 20 games. This drop in volume really opens the door for effective relievers to rise to the top spot. If Miller remains spotless (or close to it) in the runs department over 60 or more innings, it’s a In fact Big deal. If he continues to fan 70% of hitters, it’s also a In fact Big (and unprecedented) deal, as Miller is on his way to over 150 strikeouts. Last year only 43 pitchers fanned 150! Miller is false. Maybe he can even win a few games and cross 40 saves.

Ultimately, there’s still a long way to go, but it’s appropriate that we see baseball analysts discussing Miller as a legitimate contender to challenge top starters like Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes for the NL Cy Young Award. Focus big, imaginary manager! I wouldn’t trade Skanes or Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal outright for Miller (nor for the other 8-10 starters at the moment), but it’s making us think. Among pitchers, only Los Angeles Angels RHP Jose Soriano ranks better on Player Rater and only five starters have more fantasy points. Maybe Miller can really achieve this.

Don’t be surprised… If Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Padres earn second base eligibility soon

You probably haven’t paid much attention to the early eligibility trends, but Tatis has recently started a few games at second base and, depending on your league rules, he has already qualified at the new position or may soon do so. This is potentially big news! Second base isn’t exactly loaded with fantasy talent these days – certainly not like shortstop or the outfield.

Seven shortstops were easy top 100 selections in the ESPN ADP and 20 outfielders were. At second base, there’s Arizona Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte and then… the question. Chicago Cubs star Nico Hoerner is a good player, but he offers little power. Houston Astros veteran Jose Altuve is aging and trending downward. Did you reach for Atlanta Braves 2B Ozzie Albies in the draft? Many people probably did this, feeling that they could not wait too long to qualify.

Tatis is a legitimate top-10 fantasy option regardless of the format, and since the Padres don’t employ a legitimate backup middle infielder on the active roster, the organization moved 2B Jake Cronenworth to SS for a few games when Xander Bogaerts needed rest. Tatis, a former SS, moved to 2B. This could happen more often and, to be clear, fantasy managers will want to take advantage of it if/when Tatis adds eligibility, as it is much easier to find a free-agent outfielder to add to teams, especially in ESPN leagues when we only need three of them active. Thanks, Padres.

As far as other eligibility considerations, we knew that St. Louis Cardinals rookie SS JJ Weatherholt would play 2B, and he is now eligible there in ESPN formats. Tigers rookie SS Kevin McGonigal is playing 3B. Hey, we may never know when this will help, but adding eligibility to the season could be a big deal. New York Mets SS Bo Bichette and Mariners 2B Brendan Donovan are also now eligible at 3B. For those who need help catching, Cardinals DH Ivan Herrera and Padres DH Luis Campasano (and potentially Cleveland Guardians DH David Frye) will soon be playing their 10th game behind the plate. It matters!

Don’t be surprised… If Washington Nationals SS CJ Abrams delivers a 30-100-30 season

Yes, you read that right. Abrams, a relatively lanky shortstop, has never hit more than 20 home runs or driven in more than 65 runs in his three full-time seasons. Yet, three weeks out from 2026, we are already predicting these monstrous numbers? Circumstances have changed!

Abrams often looked like he was trying to hit for power last season, doing so at the expense of plate discipline and, really, game position. Still, he was not a power hitter. Abrams has been incredibly consistent over the last three seasons with 18-20 HR, 60-65 RBI and similar batting average and metrics like contact rate, strikeout rate and more. He was much better in the first half of the season (.791 OPS) than he was in the second half (.649 OPS).

it Abrams’ version, through 16 games, is hitting .356/.426/.695 with six home runs, 19 RBIs and four stolen bases – with an increased 8.8% walk rate, lower 14.7% strikeout rate, more contact and barrels, more fly balls, far fewer ground balls, a lower chase rate and a significantly higher launch angle rate. In short, Abrams, for years a leadoff hitter who stole countless bases and hit for power outside his perceived skill set, is now hitting in the middle of the lineup (led by OF James Wood). After extensive offseason work with hitting coaches to adjust his strategy, this new combination of mechanics and discipline is working. We hope he can continue this.

It seems strange to even think a player like Abrams, so far known for speed and some disappointing on- and off-field offenses, would become a legitimate power hitter, doesn’t it? 30-100 seasons aren’t very rare (14 hitters did so in 2025), nor are 30-30 campaigns (seven times last year). However, a 30-100-30 season, Is Rare. It has only been accomplished 45 times in history, although six times in the last three years, with the Mets’ Juan Soto, Los Angeles Dodgers’ unicorn Shohei Ohtani, Guardians’ 3B Jose Ramirez, Kansas City Royals’ SS Bobby Witt Jr., Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez all doing so. Some people questioned whether those players had great strength. We are no longer questioning this with Abrams.