Four Russian satellites are now within striking distance of an ICEYE radarsat

According to Gillinger, the cross-track distance between the four Russian satellites and ICEYE-X36 is now between about 500 meters (1,640 ft) and 22 kilometers (13.7 mi). All of this is happening in polar orbit at an altitude of about 340 miles (547 kilometers).

Russian satellite operators are now in a position to shut down the ICEYE satellite with “slight adjustments” to “satellite eccentricity and average altitude,” Gillinger wrote in his newsletter. A fifth satellite from the same Russian launch last month is now performing similar maneuvers to get closer to ICEYE-X36.

Co-planner or cosplay?

We know very little about what these special Kosmos satellites can do. Perhaps, as a retired US military space officer recently told Ars, this is another example of Russia wielding a dull saber. Russian military officials seem to enjoy spying on US and allied forces, often flying strategic bombers near US and European airspace.

The same behavior now appears to be spreading into space, with Russia launching multiple military spacecraft shadowing the US government’s most sophisticated spy satellites into low-Earth orbit several hundred miles above the planet. US officials believe at least some of these Russian satellites are part of an anti-satellite weapons program.

Recently, a mysterious Russian military satellite reached geosynchronous orbit more than 22,000 miles above the equator. Circumstantial evidence suggests it may also be part of a Russian anti-satellite system. The US Space Force sent one of its own observation satellites into geosynchronous orbit to take a closer look.

Targeting a single spacecraft like ICEYE-X36 at a constellation of similar imaging satellites would do little to prevent Ukraine or other Western countries from having access to radar surveillance imagery. ICEYE, itself, operates dozens of radar imaging satellites. Unlike optical spy satellites, radars provide day and night imagery, regardless of cloud cover.