Haiyan Jiang, a meteorologist at Florida International University, said there is a high chance of a strong El Nino that could increase water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.
“We probably won’t have as many storms as in past years. However, some storms are lucky,” he said. “We see outliers all the time, especially with hurricanes. So I believe Floridians, we need to be prepared.”
Names of 2026 Atlantic tropical cyclones
| arthur | Isn’t it | age |
| raft | Isaias | Paulette |
| cristobal | josephine | renewal |
| innocent | Kelly | rebellion |
| Eduard | Leah | teddy |
| sediment | marco | Vicky |
| Gonzalo | Grandfather | Wilfred |
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Weather Service, said the NWS outlook was for overall seasonal activity and did not include predictions of when and where the storm might make landfall, as that is determined by short-term weather patterns. NOAA said there is a 55 percent chance of below-normal weather, a 35 percent chance of near-normal weather and a 10 percent chance of above-normal weather.
Forecasters at Colorado State University similarly predicted a below-average season, with 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Forecasters said waters in the western tropical Atlantic were warmer than normal but the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic were slightly cooler than normal. The warmer Atlantic also reduces atmospheric pressure and makes the atmosphere more unstable, which could increase hurricane activity, he said.
Colorado state forecasters said the chance of a hurricane hitting the entire U.S. coast was 32 percent, 15 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida Peninsula, and 20 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas.
Alessi pointed out that although no hurricanes hit the United States last year, Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane. Melissa caused approximately $9 billion in damage and 95 deaths across the Caribbean region.
“Just because it’s a below-average season doesn’t mean that very powerful hurricanes won’t hit the United States,” he said.
This article was originally published on Inside Climate NewsA nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization covering climate, energy and the environment. Sign up for their newsletter Here.
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