Lawmakers returned from the Thanksgiving break on Monday with a lot to do before the holidays and only a few weeks left to do it.
At the top of Congress’s economic agenda is a promise to vote on the health care left after a 43-day shutdown. Two limited AI measures are also being debated, with the last chance for action being in 2025.
The outcome of the health care negotiations will be felt in one way or another by millions of Americans, with the January 1 deadline when the increased Obamacare premium subsidies under debate set to expire.
A vote on whether to extend them is set to take place in the coming weeks, but the exact contents of any bill are still being worked out. Lawmakers are trying to find areas of bipartisan support, but the path forward is unclear after the White House promised last week and then backed away from offering its plan.
The Senate may provide some clarity in the coming days when the upper house’s health committee gathers Wednesday morning for a hearing titled “Healing a Broken System.” Observers are waiting to see whether the final vote is a disastrous partisan exercise or a chance to finally reach President Trump’s desk.
Chairman Bill Cassidy (R-La.), right, and Ranking Member Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont who sides with the Democrats, are the top officials on the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, which will debate health care prices this week. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc. via Getty Images) ,Tom Williams via Getty Images
Meanwhile, another urgent task on lawmakers’ agenda is to pass the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which is pushing to include technology-focused provisions such as restrictions on states regulating AI.
These two economic fronts are part of what is expected to be a busy few weeks on Capitol Hill. A recently launched congressional investigation into Trump administration airstrikes in Latin America and a bill that could reshape college sports also will be debated before lawmakers go home on Dec. 18.
And all of this could be just a prelude to 2026, when the January 30 deadline for another government shutdown looms.
The Senate will be the center of health care conversations this week as bipartisan talks get underway.
This was the issue on which Democrats voted to shut down the government, but the shutdown ended with the promise of a Senate vote on the issue before the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the White House has refused to commit to its own plans — one reported proposal even extends the increased Obamacare subsidies for two more years — to take a step back, leaving Trump’s involvement in the debate unclear.
Meanwhile, House Speaker Mike Johnson has refused to promise a House vote even if a Senate deal is struck and passed, despite repeatedly referring to the subsidies as a “December policy issue.”
That dynamic means the chances of a passed bill reaching the White House any time soon are long.
While an agreement remains an obvious challenge in the coming weeks, Mizuho Americas healthcare equity strategist Jared Holz recently appeared on Yahoo Finance and reminded that political pressure for some type of extension is likely to be intense either now or when Americans see their premiums rise next year.
Holz said inaction could lead to premiums rising during an election year, creating a sense that “the careers of many politicians are at risk” over the issue. He predicted that at some point, although the timeline was unclear, “I think we’re looking at at least a one-year, maybe a two-year extension.”
The dome of the US Capitol building is visible from Union Station in Washington, DC, on November 25. (Andrew Harnick/Getty Images) ,Andrew Harnik via Getty Images
But any deal will need to be crafted with details that are in flux and big policy differences clear — such as whether to extend subsidies only, impose new income limits along with an extension, or even pursue deeper reforms around things like health savings accounts.
The challenges ahead were clear over the weekend as Democrats repeatedly raised the issue in television appearances on Sunday shows and acknowledged that success is far from a sure thing.
“We’re going to be very united in the fight that’s going to happen in the coming weeks,” Senator Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat, promised on ABC’s “This Week” before acknowledging that Republicans appear to be in opposition. “We’ll see how it goes.”
Another front to watch is artificial intelligence, with the text of the National Defense Authorization Act expected to be finalized this week. The question for markets is largely whether any AI-related moves are involved.
One potential inclusion in that annual megabill is a proposal to prevent states from regulating AI.
Trump recently pushed that idea directly, posting on Truth Social that “overregulation” at the state level is jeopardizing America’s AI competitiveness. “Put it in the NDAA, or pass a different bill, and no one will ever be able to compete with America,” he said.
A similar effort was launched earlier this year to include the idea in the One Big Beautiful bill, but it was defeated due to opposition from some Senate Republicans, including Senator Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee.
Senator Marsha Blackburn is seen at the Capitol in October. (AP Photo/Manuel Balse Seneta) ,associated Press
Another front in the AI debate is a bill called the GAIN AI Act, which would put American companies at the forefront of obtaining advanced AI chips over rival companies from countries like China.
Chip giants like Nvidia (NVDA) have already registered their opposition to the bill, saying it will restrict global competition for advanced chips.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will be in Washington on Wednesday for an event on achieving American leadership in AI. According to Punchbowl News, he is also set to stop by Capitol Hill to directly lobby against the inclusion of the GAIN AI Act.
Ben Vershkul is Yahoo Finance’s Washington correspondent.
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