California’s Battery Array Is as Powerful as 12 Nuclear Power Plants. Here’s What’s on the Horizon. – Zolair Energy Solutions Limited

SAN FRANCISCO—As families settled into their evening routines in late March, cooking dinner on electric stoves and turning on their TVs for the latest binge-watch, the state’s energy grid was working hard.

For the first time, California discharged more than 12,000 megawatts of energy from its battery array, the equivalent of 12 large nuclear plants. This is enough to meet more than 40 percent of the state’s energy demand.

California’s grid is in a constant state of change. While more than 60 percent of the state’s electricity generation last year came from carbon-free sources, momentum toward closing the final gap is staggering, as President Trump has targeted offshore wind, ordered the reopening of oil pipelines and retired renewable energy tax credits.

Ed Smeloff, an energy consultant at GridLab and an expert on transmission planning in California, closely follows grid statistics week by week. Inside Climate News spoke with Smeloff to discuss whether California’s energy transition can withstand the storm. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Claire Barber: Can you tell me how California’s renewable energy market has been performing recently? What are the changes?

Ed Smeloff:  The most notable change in the California energy market has been the rapid addition of grid-connected batteries and the use of those batteries to provide peak demand capacity. California is transitioning quite quickly from primarily using natural gas resources to now using batteries. batteries are [used] During the peak period, which occurs in the evening, usually around seven o’clock, up to 40 percent of maximum capacity requirements are produced. This is quite a remarkable achievement in a short period of time.

Barber: What else is needed to bring California online?

Smeloff: We’re expecting a significant amount of weight growth over the next decade to 2035. This will be driven by a combination of factors, electrification of transport, electric vehicles, heat pumps, electrification of buildings. More [immediately] We are looking at adding large-scale data centers, especially in the Bay Area. So to meet those loads and stay on track to meet the policy goal of 100 percent clean energy by 2045, California will need to add a significant amount of additional batteries, and it will also need to add clean energy generators that can be used to charge the batteries.

Barber: Is there enough momentum to withstand the Trump administration’s attacks on the renewables sector?

Smeloff: A bill passed by Congress last year eliminated or phased out tax credits available for wind and solar energy. The way it is structured is that any project that is not completed by the end of 2030 will not be eligible for the tax credit, which is 30 percent of the capital cost. So this is a significant setback going forward, but there is still significant momentum to complete and interconnect new projects and start generating power before 2030.

Barber: Is there a possibility of a recession in the renewable energy sector by 2030?

Smellof:  Right now we’re seeing momentum for new resource purchases in California through at least 2032. We’re also going to see some wind resources already being developed from Wyoming on the TransWest Express Transmission Line that will be completed in 2030. Then the issue becomes what will happen after 2032? There is a lot of uncertainty about this, including what the policy of the federal administration will be after this administration.

Barber: Are some parts of the renewable energy sector—batteries, wind, solar—more resilient to these attacks than others?

Smellof: I would say that the offshore wind projects that California has envisioned are the most vulnerable projects because they require federal support and they are complex projects that require developing ports where the projects can be assembled and transported to the ocean, plus, they require new high-voltage transmission lines to carry them from the North Coast and Central Coast to the bulk power grid. I think there’s a lot of uncertainty there.

Solar energy is performing very well both internationally and in the United States due to the sheer size of the solar industry. Solar energy has become the new lowest cost resource, so it still has a lot of momentum.

Barber: What about battery arrays?

Smeloff: Interestingly, the Trump administration has been supportive of batteries and [One Big Beautiful Bill]Or whatever it’s called, continued investment tax credit for batteries through 2032. So, the batteries are looking pretty good.

Barber: What has the war on Iran shown us about the renewable energy market in the US and specifically California?

Smeloff: I don’t think we’ve seen any immediate impact, but I think it reinforces the understanding that fossil fuels are unstable, unsafe, vulnerable to these international disruptions, so it makes sense to continue to develop renewable resources and electrify the economy, and especially electric vehicles, to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

Barber: Given China’s dominance in batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, etc., how have tariffs affected the renewable energy transition, if at all?

Smeloff: I think the tariffs have created uncertainties. I think it is a good thing to reduce the import of batteries and solar energy from China. But right now China is dominant and unlike fossil fuels, once you put up batteries or solar panels, China can’t take them back. They’re here, they’re installed, they’re working. I think there needs to be a middle ground to harness the ability to import low-cost technology from China, but also develop manufacturing capabilities here in the United States.

Barber: How has the AI ​​data center talk, for lack of a better word, affected the renewables sector?

Smeloff: I think generally it’s positive for the renewable sector. Many AI developers want to be able to brand themselves as clean energy. In California, most AI development is taking place in Silicon Valley in the South Bay area. The real challenge is that the Bay Area’s transmission system was built 50 years ago, and it was not designed for this load. It would need a lot of upgrades to be able to accommodate the amount of load.

There is still a lot of uncertainty about how much data center growth is going to happen. Right now, the Energy Commission says we can expect about 4,000 MW of load from data centers by 2035. But if you look at the load, the interconnection queue, it is up to 16,000. Now, some of them are fantasy projects. They won’t be visible or complete, but there is a large range of possible loads. The higher number, if successful, would boost transmission development as well as renewable energy development.

Barber: Are there any specific energy projects you’re excited about?

Smeloff: This project in the southern San Joaquin Valley in the Westlands Water District is definitely worth taking a look at. It’s called the Valley Clean Infrastructure Project, VCIP. It is being developed by a group called Golden State Clean Energy in conjunction with the Westland Waters District.

Twenty one gigawatt. We haven’t seen anything on that scale in the United States. How this is done, in a way that is consistent with community values, will be an interesting thing to keep an eye on.

Barber: Twenty-one gigawatts… for those who don’t know what that means, how much energy is that?

Smeloff: This would double the solar power already available online in California.