Winter Storm Chan aims snowfall in Midwest, Northeast
A new winter storm, Winter Storm Chan, will bring more snowfall to the Midwest and Great Lakes after Winter Storm Bellamy impacted holiday travel. Chan will then turn northeastward, potentially bringing widespread snow and significant snowfall to the region from Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
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Confidence is growing that Winter Storm Chan will be an impactful storm for millions of people because all the ingredients are in place.
- cold air (at and above the surface)
- Abundant moisture is coming from the Gulf
- Low pressure area – which has the potential to strengthen and intensify over the east coast
- upper level energy
One-two punch for the Midwest, Great Lakes
Winter Storm Chan will bring another round of new snow to the Midwest and Great Lakes Monday through Monday night. This comes after Winter Storm Bellamy dropped double-digit snowfall across a large portion of the Midwest on Saturday. Chicago O’Hare reported 8.4″ of snowfall, making it the snowiest November day on record.
Ray of hope… Chan will not be a blockbuster storm for this area of the country. However, any additional snowfall will impact travel.
Good news for the kids…the snow will be sticking around for a while as high temperatures won’t keep it above freezing all week. The upper level pattern will see strong bursts of cold air every few days, leading to cold and unsettled weather for many in the Midwest and Great Lakes.
(Map: 10-day US forecast high/low,
freezing ability
There is going to be a transition area that will set up somewhere in the Ohio Valley from Monday night into Tuesday morning. This is where the warm air above will dominate the cooler air at the surface. This will result in a mix of rain, sleet and freezing rain. Right now, models are showing a possible mix in places like Little Rock, Louisville, Paducah, Lexington, although the better chances for widespread icing look in the central and southern Appalachians.
First measurable snowfall for I-95 cities?
It’s definitely a possibility! Boston, Providence, NYC, and Philadelphia have already seen the first layers of the season, but none of these cities have reported measurable snowfall (0.1” or more) yet this season.
But there is still a lot of uncertainty.
what do we know:
Models show a low pressure area developing off the Gulf Coast early Tuesday. This low is forecast to move north-eastwards and intensify towards the Mid-Atlantic coast late Tuesday into Wednesday. While Winter Storm Chan has the potential to produce significant snow for the Northeast, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where the heaviest snow will fall at this point. Northeast storms can be extremely difficult to predict.
(More: Why are Northeast winter storms difficult to predict?,
What we don’t know:
The exact track and intensity of the storm. Models disagree on how strong the low will be and how strong the low will track, making a huge difference in where the rain/snow line is established – which is important in determining snow totals.
The European model moves the low to a more eastern track, not being as strong as well, portraying lower totals overall, with higher totals concentrated further south.
Meanwhile, the GFS models move the low northward, which pushes the rain/snow line northward and pushes accumulating snow into interior parts of the Northeast. This occurs when the I-95 corridor is abandoned.
what should you do
Stay up to date with the latest forecast here and think about how you’ll prepare if snowfall comes your way. The models will change over the next few days and the area of the heaviest snow will also change. Remember the saying, “The trend is your friend.” Once we see more consistency and agreement within models, we will have a better idea of where the worst impacts will be.
Tiffany Savona is a Weather.com meteorologist with over 15 years of experience forecasting weather across the country.
Miriam Guthrie graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with a bachelor’s degree in atmospheric and oceanic sciences and is now a meteorology intern at Weather.com while working toward her master’s degree.
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