Work-related migration to rich countries fell by more than one-fifth last year as labor markets weakened and countries including Australia and the United Kingdom tightened visa rules, according to new research from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Data from the Paris-based organization, which is made up of 38 rich and emerging economies, showed that work-related migration is projected to decline between 2023 and 2024, even as the number of arrivals to the United States fell before Donald Trump returned to the White House.
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The number of people recruited for permanent work purposes in the OECD fell by 21 percent last year, to about 934,000, after several years of steady growth following the global COVID-19 pandemic.
Part of the decline arose from a tightening of visa policy – most markedly in the UK, where net migration fell by more than 40 per cent in 2024. But even where there was no change in policy stance, labor migration declined in most EU countries, falling below 2019 levels.
According to Jean-Christophe Dumont, who leads the OECD’s international migration division, the slowdown may be due to “less favourable” global economic conditions.
In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8 percent, citing President Donald Trump’s trade war as a limiting factor.
Meanwhile, other countries that were traditionally among the largest recipients of migrants have tightened entry rules. Over the past two years, Canada, Australia and the UK have all taken measures to limit work-related migration.
Elsewhere, Dumont said the large number of Ukrainians granted temporary protection in Europe eased labor shortages in many sectors, reducing demand for foreign workers.
An estimated 5.1 million Ukrainians who fled their country following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 are now living in OECD member states as of June 2025, according to the latest OECD data.
What about other types of migration?
The OECD projects a 13 per cent decline in the number of new international students coming to OECD countries between 2023 and 2024. Stricter visa policies in the UK, US, Canada and Australia played a significant role, driven by concerns about migration fraud as well as pressure on local housing markets.
On the contrary, migration due to humanitarian reasons is continuously increasing. Asylum applications to the US have surged in the final months of the Biden administration last year, and Britain has experienced a sharp increase in illegal small boat arrivals from EU countries in recent months.
These increases mean that, despite declines in labor and student migration, total permanent migration to advanced economies in 2024 is down by only 4 percent from the previous year’s peak.
Still, the 6.2 million new people the OECD recorded in 2024 was about 15 percent more than pre-pandemic levels. Temporary labor mobility, which includes visas that do not lead to permanent settlement, remained stable at about 2.3 million. It remains above 2019 levels.
How have the migration numbers changed?
A record 6.5 million people are expected to settle in OECD countries in 2023. This was an increase of almost 10 per cent on the previous record of six million transferred in 2022 – the largest increase was in the UK.
Nearly one-third of OECD countries, including Canada, France and Japan, could experience record levels of immigration in 2023. The US gained 1.2 million permanent legal immigrants and Donald Trump based his 2024 election campaign on curbing migration.
Despite the political debate, research from investment bank Goldman Sachs found that immigration drove most of the employment gains in Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, Germany and the UK in 2023, and added more than four million jobs in the US.
what does the future hold?
Dumont suggested that overall immigration to OECD countries may decline slightly in 2025, but will remain historically high despite strict US immigration policies. He also highlighted that employment rates among migrants in labor markets remain solid.
For example, in Britain, the employment rate among foreign-born workers was about 76 percent – a figure that is slightly higher than the rate recorded for those born in the country.
He attributed this partly to visa schemes geared towards higher-skilled roles and partly to the fact that low-skilled migrants were voluntarily “filling the gap” in jobs that UK citizens do not want.
Fabiola Mieres, a senior expert on migration at the International Labor Organization, told Al Jazeera: “We need to rethink some of the issues of native labor shortages in sectors such as agriculture, construction and health (where migrant workers are concentrated).
“Clearly, the minimum wage and working conditions are part of the story.”
He said that “Immigration will likely remain an important part of electoral politics around the world, especially in Europe and the US. It raises a lot of heated emotions.”
What is OECD?
The OECD was established in 1948 to coordinate the US Marshall Plan for the reconstruction of Western Europe after World War II. At the time, it provided a forum for economic planning and the removal of trade barriers between its European members.
By the late 1950s, as European reconstruction was nearing completion, member states sought a more global framework for economic cooperation. In 1961, the OECD expanded its membership to include the US and Canada.
In subsequent decades, the OECD expanded its membership to include countries in Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe, reflecting its evolution from a transatlantic grouping into a broader community of advanced and emerging countries.
By the end of the 20th century, the OECD had developed into a central hub for economic research, policy analysis, and the development of governance standards. It is widely recognized for its work and research on education, labor markets and environmental policy.
In 2019, the OECD led a proposal to impose a minimum tax of 15 percent on large multinationals to end decades of tax competition between governments trying to attract foreign investment.
The rules, which were adopted by the G20 in October 2021, make it harder for large international companies, including giants like Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft and Apple, to avoid taxation by setting up offices in low-tax jurisdictions.
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