“I look at it the same way everyone looks at it,” Bedard said recently in response to a question about whether he’s paying attention to other players’ new deals.
But as is often the case with Bedard, he’s not like everyone else. There’s nothing ordinary about Bedard, at least when it comes to hockey. Same thing will happen economically also soon. He is the next rising young player everyone will want to see what he gets on a contract before his entry-level deal. He is due to get a new contract for the 2026–27 season.
Considering his primary market is with Chicago, how he has already made an impact for the Blackhawks on and off the ice, what he is developing as a player in his third NHL season and the rising salary cap, there are plenty of reasons for intrigue.
But while others have been discussing and debating what Bedard’s next contract will look like, he has been as quiet as can be. According to him, he is not even thinking about it.
“No, not at all, really,” Bedard said Monday. “I’m just playing. It’ll all happen when it happens. It’s not really something I’ve thought about at all.”
over here athleticHowever, we have. Let’s find out what Bedard’s next contract could be for the Blackhawks.
To start, the Blackhawks’ overall financial picture needs to be assessed. That picture is clear as day for general manager Kyle Davidson. The rising cap will open up cap space for almost every team, but few will have the cap space that Davidson has in the coming years. That said, don’t expect Davidson to spend that money wildly. Davidson’s long-term plan revolves around building from within. If he hits enough of his 11 first-round picks and five second-round picks over the last four years, that cap space will soon be consumed by all of his young players.
As the cap situation relates to Bedard, wherever his cap number falls over the next few years, and especially for the 2026-27 season, will help the Blackhawks in the short term. One of Davidson’s hurdles in roster construction over the next few years, as there will be a heavy reliance on young players, is reaching the cap floor. Even after taking care of extensions last offseason for Frank Nazar and Spencer Knight — whose combined cap hits would be about $12.4 million — the Blackhawks still have about $50 million in dedicated cap hits heading into next season. This includes 15 players signed for next season, the buyout of TJ Brodie and the retained cap hit of Seth Jones. Depending on where next season’s cap floor is expected to be, the Blackhawks will still be about $20 million short.
That doesn’t mean Davidson will hand Bedard a blank check. Davidson knows well how quickly the salary cap can come up for a young and promising team. He saw this because the Blackhawks had to make tough financial decisions on players due to limited cap space during their Stanley Cup years. It may help that Davidson has gotten manageable cap numbers whenever he’s been linked to a player so far. Alex Vlasic went first, signing a six-year deal with a $4.6 million cap hit. Nazar and Knight were next. Nazar signed a seven-year extension with a cap hit of $6,599,991. Knight signed a three-year extension with a cap hit of $5,833,333. In addition to them, Davidson will have first-round picks Artem Levshunov, Sam Rinzel and Oliver Moore up for new deals after the 2026-27 season. Wyatt Kaiser, who just signed a short-term extension, will remain on the job after the 2026-27 season. All four players are expected to be a part of the long-term future. Other people are also coming.
Davidson would undoubtedly prefer to void Bedard’s deal last offseason, as he did with Nazar and Knight. Bedard’s value would still be high, but nowhere near as high as it is now. Bedard’s play has taken to a completely different level in his third NHL season, and he has been rated among the league’s best players. Through 22 games this season, he has scored 13 goals, 18 assists and 31 points. He’s also showing signs of being a more reliable two-way player and a legitimate center. He has also recently worn an alternate captaincy letter. He’s becoming everything the Blackhawks hoped he would be.
But whether it was Bédard’s wishes or his agents’ advice, he chose to wait. He wasn’t rushing into anything. Because of this, his second contract will likely be more lavish. While this will likely cost the Blackhawks more, his recent ascension removes any doubt that he can be in the NHL as was expected of him coming out of junior. The Blackhawks can rest assured what they are paying for. With that said, no matter when Bedard signs, whether it’s today or after the season, no one would blame them for asking about the going rate for a franchise player.
Market trends would also support Bedard’s questioning whether he’s looking for a long-term franchise contract. Luke Hughes signed a $9 million AAV contract after his entry-level deal expired. Lane Hutson’s next deal starts next season and is just a bit below that. But the best comparable is Logan Cooley, the third overall pick in the 2022 draft, who signed an eight-year, $10 million per year deal that also starts next season.
This is largely in line with what Evolving-Hockey would have projected for Bedard had he been a free agent last season. That model projects an eight-year, $10.6 million extension for the Blackhawks’ cornerstone. Signature Any Even in today’s rising cap world, a contract of that magnitude carries an element of player risk. Bedard’s first two seasons did nothing to mitigate that risk, but now he is projected to be worth that and more.
This season’s stellar first quarter contributes to Bedard’s rising market value, according to athleticModel of Dom Luszczyn. Over the next eight years, his average wealth is estimated to be $16.9 million. That’s a huge number that few NHLers have been able to reach in recent years. For context, Leon Draisaitl’s league-high real salary for this season comes in just under $16.5 million, with Nathan MacKinnon close behind at $16.1 million. This is the limit that Kirill Kaprizov will exceed next year with a $17 million AAV. Jack Eichel will do the same with a real salary of $17.7 million in the first year of his new contract (on a contract with an AAV of $13.5 million).
Bedard’s next contract probably won’t be in that stratosphere. Few NHLers get there, especially restricted free agents who typically don’t have as much leverage in contract negotiations. But that high market value suggests the Blackhawks can’t really go wrong here; The team is going to benefit from surplus value, whether it signs Cooley and Evolving-Hockey projects in the $10-$11 million range, or extend that deal a little further. Some players close to Bedard point to the idea of his next contract living up to the hype – from Eichel and MacKinnon to John Tavares. Clayton Keller shows that Star Trek is still possible despite a more sluggish start. Sean Monahan There’s a potential red flag here; The context of his injury situation contributes to his decline.
Bedard’s AAV will depend on whether he wants a short- or long-term deal. A long-term contract is the more traditional route for a franchise cornerstone like Bedard. Connor McDavid, Eichel and Draisaitl were all signed to eight-year deals following their ELCs. MacKinnon’s second contract was for seven years, while wingers Mitch Marner, David Pastrnak, William Nylander and Mikko Rantanen were extended for six years. And if the Blackhawks don’t extend Bedard ahead of schedule, seven years will be the next maximum contract option when the new CBA goes into effect.
But there is an example of an even smaller deal. Just look at Auston Matthews, whose second contract lasted five years. Or to Tampa Bay, where Braden Point and Nikita Kucherov agreed to three-year post-ELC contracts before moving on to long-term deals. Evolving-Hockey’s model points to a lower cap hit for shorter-term deals; When those projections came out last summer, the three-year deal was valued at $7.76 million per year. If Point’s contract is comparable, his cap hit percentage in Year 1 was 8.3, which could translate to around $9 million in 2026-27.
But Bedard could still move up to more than $10 million on a shorter contract; His average market value for the next three years is $13.6 million. This path would allow Bedard to maximize his earnings on his next two contracts, as the cap will likely continue to rise. This could spell a little trouble for the Blackhawks in the long run, as he could easily sign for over $10 million now, and then demand an even bigger raise in a few years.
Davidson’s goal will be to convince Bedard to accept something that will allow the Blackhawks to more easily pay and retain all of their young and promising players in the future. Bédard will undoubtedly be stressed about how taking less money will lead to more wins. Bedard’s idol growing up was Sidney Crosby, and Crosby did well by earning $8.7 million throughout his career. But it’s also important to remember that when Crosby first agreed to that figure, it was 15.34 percent of the limit. The same cap percentage next season will be around $15.95 million.
The Blackhawks will do their best to keep Bedard away from that high amount, but there won’t likely be much pushback from them. His contract will likely be what he wants. The Blackhawks have come to terms with it. All indications are also that the Blackhawks will be a team that will also spend to the max, as they did when they were winning Cups last decade. Blackhawks president Danny Wirtz recently said he believes the Blackhawks will continue spending as long as necessary. Davidson will have to explain why it’s needed, but it should be self-explanatory if the team is winning.
Bedard’s contract would obviously be guaranteed at almost any number. Will it align with Cooley or someone else? We can continue the discussion, but don’t expect Bedard to join in.
“I’m not paying attention to that,” Bedard said. “It’s not something that’s worrying me right now or anything.”
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