What hot starts by Jokic, SGA, Luka, Giannis mean for MVP race

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic has earned three MVP wins and two runner-up finishes in the last five NBA campaigns. So, it’s saying a lot that he’s having the best statistical start of his much-discussed career in 2025-26.

He is averaging 29.6 points, 12.8 rebounds and 11.1 assists in 17 games this season, with league-leading marks in the latter two categories. He’s making 70% of his 2-point attempts and 43% of his 3s, and he’s had triple-doubles in more than half of his outings while keeping the 13-4 Nuggets high in the crowded Western Conference standings.

But it’s not just Jokic. While the Nuggets’ big man is on pace to break his own record in single-season player efficiency rating (PER), two other MVP winners – Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder – are also eclipsing that mark.

Of the 96 players in NBA history who have averaged at least 30 points per game in a season, Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander and Antetokounmpo currently rank first, second and fourth, respectively, in true shooting percentage as of Monday morning, according to Stathead. Only Golden State Warriors star Stephen Curry’s 2015–16 season – when he won the only unanimous MVP in league history – broke the 2025–26 trio’s sweep of the top spots.

As their stellar seasons continue, let’s check out the stellar stats of Jokic, Antetokounmpo, Gilgeous-Alexander and the Los Angeles Lakers’ Luka Doncic, along with what these hot starts could mean for the developing 2025-26 MVP race:

Jump to topic:
Jokic’s great start
SGA, Giannis, Luca in context
Effects of the MVP race

Jokic’s great start

To put Jokic’s start into context, I’ll first use a statistic designed to measure production in a small sample: game score, which condenses a player’s entire box score into a single number. Game scores have been tracked since the 1983–84 season, with players rewarded for positive contributions (such as points, steals and assists) while penalized for negative statistics (including missed shots and turnovers). The final numbers are roughly on the same scale as the points – so a game score above 30 is good, a game score of 20 is good, etc.

Jokic’s average game score this season is 31.8, the most for any player over a 17-game record. Jokic also set the previous record of 30.5 last season; Before that, it belonged to Michael Jordan from the 1988–89 campaign.

Jokic’s 2023-24 season also puts him fifth on the game score leaderboard through 17 games. In other words, Jokic’s last three campaigns represent three of the five best starts to a season for any player since game score was first tracked.

One reason for Jokic’s exceptional scoring average per game is his efficiency, as he does not face many penalties for missed shots. For example, consider his astonishing 70% mark on 2-pointers: The previous 2-point percentage record for players with at least 10 attempts per game was Wilt Chamberlain’s 68% in 1966–67. (Here too, Jokic has two other seasons in the top five of this leaderboard.)

Jokic’s raw numbers also elevate him up the game score leaderboards. His averages of 29.6 points, 12.8 rebounds and 11.1 assists per game mean half his performances are as productive or better. For context, only two other Nuggets players in history have any games with at least 30, 13 and 11: Fat Lever in 1988 and Alex English in 1982. Not so long ago, the entire NBA did not have any 30/13/11 games from January 2011 to February 2015.

Remarkably, Jokic has never led the league in scoring over an entire season. But through the first month of this season, he has topped the rebound and assist leaderboards – giving him a chance to achieve another milestone.

No player has led the NBA in rebounds and assists per game apart season, let alone in the same amount of time, as Jokic is on track to do this season. He has almost accomplished this in recent seasons, finishing second in assists and third in rebounds in 2024-25 and second in rebounds and third in assists in 2022-23.

Before Jokic, the last time a player came this close was in 1967–68, when Chamberlain won the rebounding title but was runner-up in assists. (Chamberlain actually led the league in total assists that season as he played all 82 games, but Oscar Robertson had a higher per game average at 65 games.)

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The historic ascents of Gilgeous-Alexander, Antetokounmpo and Doncic

Although no other player is setting records like Jokic this season, some other superstars are not far behind.

Gilgeous-Alexander, who usurped Jokic for 2024-25 MVP, has an average game score of 28.1, the fifth-highest mark on his 18-game record. Antetokounmpo had a game-high of 29.3 points in 12 games – fourth highest on record – before he injured his groin. And Doncic’s 28.1 game scoring in 12 games ranks sixth.

In other words, the top four players this season have had the best statistical start to a season in more than 40 years.

Of Jokic’s competitors for the MVP award, Gilgeous-Alexander has the best volume because of his health. The reigning MVP, Finals MVP and scoring champion has recorded 32.2 points per game, career-high efficiency numbers and a career-low turnover rate, while leading his team to a 17-1 record and a plus-16.9 point differential.

Gilgeous-Alexander scoring so many points despite rarely playing in the fourth quarter can be attributed to all of the Thunder’s blowout wins against a decidedly soft schedule; He has the second-most points in the first quarter of a game, the most points in the second quarter and the most points in the third quarter – but he ranks 69th in points in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, even though Antetokounmpo’s per-game stats have pulled down from his most recent appearance – when he played just 13 minutes before his departure due to injury – he is still averaging 31.2 points, 10.8 rebounds and 6.8 assists. This would be his third consecutive season averaging at least 30/10/6; Apart from Jokic this season, such a feat has only been accomplished three times in NBA history (twice by Robertson and once by Russell Westbrook).

And Antetokounmpo is still improving. His play is a constant work in progress. And because he’s taking a career-high 73% of his shots at the rim this season, according to Cleaning the Glass, he’s enjoying career-best efficiency numbers.

Finally, Doncic leads the league in scoring with 34.5 points per game. Despite shooting an abysmal 31% from distance, he is shooting a career-high 61% on 2-pointers and leading the league in free throw makes (9.9 per game) and attempts (12.5 per game). Add in his standard 8.9 assists and 8.8 rebounds per game, and his numbers would make him a clear MVP favorite in any season before this new competitive era of hyper-skilled, hyper-productive stars.

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What this could mean for the MVP race

The season is only a month old, so the regression will likely bring these statistical outliers back into the pack somewhat. For example, Jokic is shooting well above his previous career highs at the rim, from floater range and on long midrange attempts, so 70% on 2-pointers probably won’t be that high. His league-leading assist average could also drop in the coming weeks, as teammates Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon will miss long periods of time due to injuries.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s numbers may decline due to Oklahoma City’s tough schedule; According to analytical site Dunks & Threes, the Thunder have faced the second-easiest slate of opposing defenses of any team. Antetokounmpo could falter if the effects of his groin injury — from which he could return soon — hinders his ability to fully dominate defenders around the rim. And Doncic’s league-leading usage rate may be declining as he shares the court with both breakout star Austin Reaves and the recently returned LeBron James.

But it’s also possible that the four players with such excellent track records continue to produce at roughly their current pace, so dreams of a fiercely contested MVP race between these stars who are enjoying historically impressive seasons are alive and well.

After all, Jokic’s historic debut doesn’t mean his fourth MVP trophy is predetermined. He did not win MVP last season, when he had the previous best statistical start to a campaign; Nor did Jordan in 1988–89, when Magic Johnson won in a close vote.

And the competition this season could be extraordinary. Depending on the current trajectory of the top quartet, the 2025-26 MVP race could come down to:

• Jokic, a three-time MVP who leads the league in rebounds and assists, averages 30 points per game and leads his team to more than 60 wins.

• One-time MVP, Gilgeous-Alexander, who scored a super-efficient 32 points per game for a team that set a single-season wins record – basically a repeat of Curry’s unanimous MVP season

• Antetokounmpo, the two-time MVP, posted better counting statistics and efficiency numbers than his previous MVP campaigns.

• Doncic, a star guard who is averaging nearly a triple-double of 35 points per game

Some credit for the statistical supremacy of these four goes to their era. Both pace and efficiency have increased this season, and teams are scoring an average of 117.1 points per game, up from 113.8 last season. Thus, 2025-26 is on pace to be the highest-scoring season since the 1960s, when high point totals helped create memorable per-game stat lines like Robertson’s triple-double and Chamberlain’s 50.4 points.

Furthermore, today’s best offensive players are likely to have more all-around dominance than previous generations. Triple-doubles have never been as common as they are now, and the rate of individual 30-game scoring performances has more than doubled since the mid-2010s.

However, even amidst that context, the quartet of Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Antetokounmpo and Doncic stands above the rest of the league. Victor Wembanyama is on the rise, and established stars like Anthony Edwards and Donovan Mitchell are once again firmly in the All-NBA field. But as appeared to be the case at the beginning of the season, there is still a wide gap between the NBA’s top four players and the rest of its player pool.