With the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP 30) underway this week, researchers have shared the first look at this year’s carbon emissions data. The findings show that global emissions from fossil fuels are on track to reach a record high in 2025.
The Global Carbon Budget report, produced by an international team of more than 130 scientists and published on Wednesday, predicts nearly 42 billion tonnes (38 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels this year. This is an increase of 1.1% from 2024.
Based on this and other factors, limiting global warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels — the limit set by the Paris Agreement in 2015 — would be nearly impossible, the authors conclude. To stabilize the current warming trend, we don’t just need to cut our emissions, we need to get them to zero.
At times like these, it’s easy to get discouraged. But the report’s lead author, Pierre Friedlingstein – a professor at the University of Exeter who specializes in global carbon cycle modeling and director of the Global Carbon Budget Office – says the findings should inspire the world to act now to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
“There is no alternative,” Friedlingstein told Gizmodo. “We have to remain optimistic because we have to deal with the issue of climate change.”
looking for good amidst bad
Believe it or not, the report isn’t all bad news. While the data shows fossil fuel emissions have increased, total global carbon emissions – a combination of emissions from fossil fuels and land use – are projected to be slightly lower than last year.
“There are definitely signs in this [the report] Piers Forster, professor of physical climate change and founding director of the Priestley Center for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds, who was not involved in the study, said emissions are actually starting to slow their growth or change direction.
Speaking with Gizmodo from COP 30 in Belém, Brazil, Forster pointed to China’s leadership in electrification and renewable energy as a sign that we are reaching a turning point, not only in terms of emissions, but also in the availability of climate solutions.
Although China remains the world’s largest CO2 emitter, the report finds that its emissions growth has slowed due to moderate growth in energy consumption coupled with extraordinary growth in renewables. Indeed, China has emerged as a prominent leader at COP 30 this year, especially in the absence of the world’s second-largest CO2 emitter: the US.
The report also highlights projected declines in emissions from land-use change – particularly deforestation. This increased the scale of total global carbon emissions this year, slightly offsetting the increase in fossil fuel emissions.
“Deforestation rates are declining in South America as well as in other parts of the world,” Friedlingstein said. “And reforestation is also slowly increasing.” Emissions from deforestation and land-use change are still far from zero, he explained.
keeping the Faith
The report’s findings come with several caveats. First and foremost, looking at global carbon budget reports for one year is not a good indicator of long-term progress – or the lack thereof – toward climate goals, says Friedlingstein. Nevertheless, these reports are important for keeping the international community on track and informing year-to-year decisions on emissions reduction strategies and targets.
It’s also worth noting that the report only looks at CO2 emissions – it doesn’t include other greenhouse gases like methane. And despite the progress China has made in decarbonizing its economy and the reductions we are seeing in deforestation, the world is still no closer to achieving net-zero emissions.
“We still have a lot of work to do,” Forster said. “I mean, we have greenhouse gas emissions at an all-time high. We have a very small remaining carbon budget [avoid] 1.5℃. So we have to reduce our emissions back.”
One of the most worrying findings of the report is that 8% of the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since 1960 is due to climate change. Rising global temperatures have reduced the efficiency of land and ocean carbon sinks, essentially weakening the Earth’s ability to offset humanity’s rising emissions. A companion paper published in Nature discusses this discovery in more detail.
Despite these circumstances, both Friedlingstein and Forster insist that hope is the key to progress, and progress is our only hope. “There is no Plan B,” Friedlingstein said. “Adapting and doing nothing is not an option in terms of mitigation.”
Although Forster said he is not optimistic based on what current research shows, he finds hope in the UN climate talks. “Cooperation between countries is very important,” he said. “I think there are still artists in every country who see the threat of climate change and want to make change.”