We’re coming at you early this week with three Thursday games and another Friday on the Thanksgiving slate, and we want to see how sportsbooks are treating each Week 14 matchup before any Week 13 football comes in the books. What’s the importance of making the best bets early before getting ready for Thanksgiving dinner?
Last week, we got good value by supporting the Cowboys early in their Thanksgiving matchup with the Chiefs, giving the home team 4.5 points. We also have the Colts at -3.5 before adding a point to the line, while our Black Friday pick of the Bears remains firm despite the Eagles’ loss last week.
What can we predict this week? Let’s take a look at the consensus Week 14 frontrunners and then share your best bets to lock up early.
week 14 front lines
Cowboys at Lions (-6), 54.5
Colts at Jaguars (-3), 48.5
Bengals at Bills (-7), 53.5
Dolphins at Jets (-3), 41.5
Saints at Buccaneers (-8.5), 43
Steelers at Ravens (-6.5), 47.5
Titans at Browns (-3.5), 34.5
Seahawks (-7.5) at Falcons, 43.5
Commanders at Vikings (-2.5), 43.5
Broncos (-8) at Raiders, 39.5
Bears at Packers (-6.5), 46.5
Rams (-8.5) and Cardinals, 47.5
Texans at Chiefs (-5.5), 42.5
Eagles (-2.5) at Chargers, 43.5
Week 14 Prediction Picks
commander in vikings
It’s available on Commanders +2.5 in some places, and I don’t understand it. Jayden Daniels is likely to return for this game, and if that happens, Washington may need to get three-point support. Even if he doesn’t, I’d still take my chances on Marcus Mariota against the Vikings’ defense and not expect the Vikings to have offensive success against anyone at this point, even the Commanders. We’ll probably score points against JJ McCarthy in this matchup, and I like having the ‘Dog in there, even though my current rating puts this game on the other side of a 3. If Minnesota’s QB situation doesn’t improve this week, I expect them to take the Browns down, making my rating on this game spread around the pick’em with Mariota at QB.
Eagles at Chargers
We’ve faded the Eagles in our past few lookahead columns, but now it’s time to back them in the matchup they should dominate. The Chargers have major issues at offensive tackle, and teams with good edge rushers should be able to take advantage of those mismatches and shut down Los Angeles’ offense. I expect we’ll see a bit of that this week against the Raiders, and if the Chargers do anything but blow out Vegas, this line needs to get down to -3.
Jaguars at Colts
My rating line for this game is Colts -3.5, but I’ve been higher on the Colts and lower on the Jaguars than the market in recent weeks, so from the perspective of the possibility of this line changing, I don’t see it going higher than 3 unless we have a terrible game on the road against the Titans in Jacksonville. If they come away with a win, they will be one game behind the Colts at worst, and Indy has a much greater chance of coming up short against a strong Texans defense. I’m probably going to go on the Colts next week in this matchup, but in terms of line value it’s worth taking the Jaguars +3 and then hopefully we can play the Colts at -2 or lower.
other notes: The forward total for Titans-Browns is only 34.5, so even though I wanted to back the Browns as a 3.5-point favorite in that matchup, it’s nearly impossible to do so with such a low total. … As 8.5-point favorites against the Saints, the Buccaneers should assume Baker Mayfield will be back at full strength, as that’s probably how I would have projected the spread if I had full confidence in him playing without limitations. As a result the Saints are probably a valuable play at +8.5, but after getting burned by them last week I find myself unable to trust them… The Chiefs are 5.5-point favorites at home against the Texans, and I’m almost sure the line is locked one way or the other. I think it should be higher because I’m buying back on Kansas City after what we saw in the Colts game, but if they struggle against the Cowboys on Thursday and the Texans give the Colts a competitive game, it could crash the Chiefs near -4.
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