Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson averages the highest receiving yards per game (93.5) in NFL history, and while he has been fortunate to play with talented starting quarterbacks for most of his career, much of his success comes from his pure individual talent. Jefferson will need to rely on his natural playmaking ability as the Vikings are headed down the depth chart at quarterback due to injuries, with undrafted rookie quarterback Max Brosmer set to start against the Seahawks on Sunday. Jefferson’s receiving yards over/down dropped to 54.5 yards, and although a decline is expected with Broesmer at quarterback, the SportsLine machine learning model sees this as too much of an overreaction for someone of Jefferson’s ability. The model has Jefferson over 54.5 receiving yards as one of its top picks for Week 13 NFL prop betting on Sunday. According to the latest NFL odds, the Vikings are 11.5-point underdogs against Seattle.
Along with Jefferson over, the model is also favoring 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy over 197.5 passing yards while sporting over 59.5 rushing yards for the Panthers, making running back Rico Dowdle his best bet for Week 13 NFL player props. The 49ers play the Browns, who have the No. 2 passing defense in the NFL, but Purdy has thrown for at least 200 yards in three of four starts this season, and the model views Purdy’s even lower over/under as an overreaction, putting him over the top. nfl betting Week 13 NFL Player Options in Prop Bets.
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Built by SportsLine’s data science team using cutting-edge artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies, AI predictions and AI ratings are tailored for each player.
Best Week 13 NFL Player Prop Picks:
- Brock Purdy, 49ers, 197.5 passing yards (-115)
- Rico Dowdle, Panthers, 59.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Justin Jefferson, Vikings, over 54.5 receiving yards (-114)
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Brock Purdy, 49ers, 197.5 passing yards (-115)
It’s rare to see Purdy hold such low numbers, and it’s due to a combination of playing the No. 2 passing defense in the NFL and averaging one of the lowest yardage totals of his career last week. Purdy threw for just 193 yards at 6.0 yards per attempt against the Panthers on Monday Night Football, but he has thrown for at least 200 yards in each of his last three starts. The 49ers play the Browns, who have the No. 2 passing defense in the NFL, allowing 170.7 passing yards per game, but Geno Smith threw for 285 yards against Cleveland last week, which is 70 yards more than his average this season. The 49ers’ offense continues to get better as the weeks go by, and Purdy has several strong players in George Kittle, Jaune Jennings, Ricky Pearsall and Christian McCaffrey. The model projects 244 passing yards for Purdy on Sunday.
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Rico Dowdle, Panthers, 59.5 rushing yards (-114)
Dowdle has gone below that number three weeks in a row, but he’s still the only one to have at least 130 rushing yards in three contests over a four-game span. The Panthers surprisingly gave Dowdle only six carries last week, and he scored nine points with only one touchdown with the formula, so there’s reason to expect a change this weekend. The Panthers play the Rams, who have the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL, but they allowed 4.2 yards per carry to Tampa Bay running backs last week. With the potential for increased workload going forward, the model projects Dowdle for 76 rushing yards on Sunday.
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Justin Jefferson, Vikings, over 54.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Vikings have not had the most consistent quarterback play throughout Jefferson’s tenure, yet he is the NFL’s all-time leader in receiving yards per game (93.5). Jefferson has caught passes from quarterbacks like Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall over the past four seasons, with Minnesota quarterbacks dealing with frequent injuries. That leaves the Vikings to turn to an undrafted rookie free agent on Sunday. Max Broesmer could decide to hook his WR1 with a heavy amount of targets ahead of the matchup against the Seahawks, which wouldn’t be the worst strategy. Jefferson’s lower over/under makes sense with the unknown of Brosmer, however, the model views this number as too low, given that possibly the best receiver in the league still finished with 66 receiving yards.
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Want more Week 13 NFL picks?
You’ve seen the model’s NFL choices for some popular NFL player props for Week 13. Now, get NFL Week 13 projections for every player props on SportsLine.
Also on SportsLine:
you can do it too See the model’s best bets for each Week 13 NFL game, including 49ers vs. Browns, Bills vs. Steelers and Broncos vs. Commanders., Finally, SportsLine expert RJ White, who is 125-97-3 (+2395) on his last 225 NFL picks, has locked up multiple Week 13 NFL picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best bets,
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