St. Mary’s plays a smaller lineup and this is the first time they have been really tested this season. Arkansas State, a team that is now 4-3 on the season, pushed the Gaels for a while but that game ended up being a 13-point contest. Wichita State was the first potential opponent of the NCAA Tournament and the talent matchup made that clear on the court. St. Mary’s had its hands full and essentially played a six-man rotation, with three of its starters not coming out in the second half.
The Gaels have some versatility defensively because of big man Andrew McKeever. The 7’2″ center is so dynamic that he can get across the lane and block shots or step up and make you uncomfortable at the free throw line. Teams switch between one man defense and matchup zone defense quite often, so finding ways to attack him may prove difficult. However, if you can move him around to get him into foul trouble or attack the basket it will help open up the court a lot. Harry Vessels is the backup center at 7’1”, so there are other sizes that can come in but there is a lot that can go on. McKeever on both ends of the court.
Paulius Murauskas is a power forward and one of the better players the Hokies have seen this season, which is saying something considering the talent in the ACC this season. Paulius is an amazing scorer and rebounder who has an instinctive approach. Murauskas can score at all three levels and does a good job of getting to the line after attacking the offensive glass. Virginia Tech’s veterans are going to have complete control over Saint Mary’s frontcourt, especially with the way the Colorado State team continues to score in the paint. Kevin Gad is another forward and has actually started but gets very limited minutes and is primarily a rebounder if he sees extended playing time.
If after reading that introduction you thought the talent resided in the big men, unfortunately for Hokie fans, backcourt talent is also abundant. St. Mary’s team is once again loaded with this season’s two primary premiership scorers in Mickey Lewis and Joshua Dent. Lewis, the team’s leading scorer with averages of 19 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4 assists per game, is a shot-taking player who creates for others by creating for himself. Teams start focusing on him and he does a good job of getting it done and getting others involved. Lewis is also the best perimeter shooter on the Gaels roster. Dent is a point guard and crafty, finding creative passes but also scoring with small floaters in the lane and doesn’t need much space to work with. Joshua brings solid size to the position and is a handful defensively as well.
Rory Hawk, Liam Campbell, and Dillon Shaw are the final three players who could see some extended minutes and all three are rookies so it depends on what Randy Bennett is going to do in the matchups. Hawk hasn’t had much of a statistical breakout to this point, but it shows his defensive contributions, especially in the area that St. Mary’s was using last night. Campbell has had some breakout offensive games and can be an explosive scorer, but his minutes have decreased over the past two contests due to a decline in his shooting percentage. Shaw is technically listed as a guard along with the other two, but at 6’7” he has more versatility and is playing with more consistency, doing a little bit of everything every time he comes on the court.
It’s really all about those big four for St. Mary’s. Can Virginia Tech find a way to get McKeever out of trouble or into trouble? Can the post defense find answers for McKeever or Murauskas? Can the perimeter defense be stronger or will the emphasis on switching to stop the post open things up for guys like Lewis and Dent? There are a lot of questions in Virginia Tech’s favor, but Saint Mary’s also has questions after a close game in its first real challenge. Going up against a Virginia Tech team that can knock down shots from the outside with a few guys could be the perfect combination to break down their defense.
One of the biggest questions for the Hokies heading into the game is the net availability of star guard Neo Avadalas, who rolled his ankle early in the game against Colorado State. He managed to return and play despite the injury but was seen staggering the rest of the time. Adrenaline often carries you through some of those injuries, so his situation will be one to watch, whether he goes or not and if he goes what percentage he’s actually playing at. Virginia Tech is a different team when he’s not on the court, so missing him in their biggest competition will be a big blow.
Assuming Avadalas can go, he brings elite court vision and stability whenever he is in the lineup. At times Avdalas can press for his shot, but more often than not Neo plays within the flow of the game and attacks when the team needs it. Jaylen Bedford is the other primary perimeter creator, working on pick-and-roll opportunities or being the guy who can drain the three off screens. Both players are more comfortable attacking the rim, and may be the two in the best position to get McKeever into foul trouble, but they have also proven themselves to be capable outside shooters.
Tyler Johnson, Ben Hammond, and Jaden Schutt are the three other perimeter players. Johnson, a physical forward who can play on the wing or in the post, is a great rebounder and defender who is starting to impact the game in every aspect. His playmaking and scoring are taking great steps and Johnson is quietly becoming one of Virginia Tech’s most valuable players. Hammond is Virginia Tech’s sophomore point guard and brings defense and speed to the court. Ben can hit perimeter shots but his speed through the lane and passing comes to the fore offensively. Schutt is absolutely a shooter, plain and simple. His value starts to diminish when shots are falling but teams have to respect him as a floor spacer. Against a team like Saint Mary’s that plays different defenses, a guy like Schutt has a chance to go down and make the team pay as a corner three merchant.
Now we come to the big men, an area that has been a simultaneous strength and weakness this season. Amani Hansberry has transferred and brought some stability to the Hokies center spot. Not the biggest player and has some shooting inconsistencies, but a player who will always get on the boards and find a way to contest and score. Amani was out with an injury in one game and was a big difference in Virginia Tech’s play, even against an inferior opponent. Toby Lawal is the other starter and although he has been performing poorly he has had a good season. Averaging 12.8 points and 10.3 rebounds, some of last season’s flash is gone but productivity mostly remains. Toby has also shown more shot blocking this season, which shows his elite athleticism. Surprisingly, Lawal seems to struggle the most against other super athletic power forwards but that is not St. Mary’s strength. If Virginia Tech can get these two back on track and keep them out of foul trouble then it’s a different game.
The last two can have the biggest impact on the game. Christian Gurdak and Antonio Dorn are the two centers on the roster and both will likely see some time in this game. The Gurdak duo has been more productive, but have less size for the center spot, so a matchup against a player like McKeever could be a really tough task. Dorn has struggled to adjust since his transfer from Germany, but the 7-footer has the size and physical ability to compete in the post and not let a player completely derail what the Hokies want to do.
St. Mary’s should get the lead again but everything else is debatable. The Gaels are coming off a game where they shot 13% from three and struggled from the field. The post points should clearly point to Saint Mary’s as well, but again, this is a better matchup lol and Antonio Dorn should see minutes in this game after not getting any time against Colorado State due to the pace of the game. From a style standpoint, this is a very different game for the Hokies than the one fans saw on Wednesday evening and although the final scores may be the same, it should be a great battle between two talented coaches.
Prediction
The more I watched St. Mary’s on Wednesday night, the more I thought they were a beatable team. I shared on the board that I thought the tournament would be a win-loss-win for the Hokies, but I started to discount it. I’m totally going to keep the St. Mary’s win firm and lean because I’m concerned about Neo’s ankle and need a true McKeever answer, but I wouldn’t be surprised if VT pulled it off. This is a sneaky Shutt/Bedford game and they can turn it upside down.
Final: Virginia Tech 67 Saint Mary’s 71
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