Ukrainians in war-ravaged Donbas weigh prospects of peace deal

Trains no longer run to Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region – the part of Donbass that Russian President Vladimir Putin claims outright. This is another sign of Russia’s continued progress.

Instead, the last station is now on the western edge of the Donetsk border. This is where civilians and soldiers wait for the ride to relative safety – their train to exit Dodge.

Putin is looking more optimistic after the leaking of US proposals to end the war, which are widely seen as being in line with his maximalist demands. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says the region remains the most difficult issue facing US-led peace talks.

At the last station on the line, soldier Andrey and his girlfriend Polina are parting ways after a short time together. Andrey must return to the front and they do not know when they will see each other again.

He laughs when I mention the peace talks, which saw Donald Trump’s envoys talking to Ukrainian negotiators before heading to Moscow, and dismisses them as “blabber, just chatter.” They don’t think the war will end soon.

There is also skepticism among other soldiers who board a train to the west for a brief respite from the fighting. They are taking some of their 20 days leave. Most look tired.

Russian forces now control about 85% of Donbass, consisting of Luhansk and Donetsk. On Tuesday they claimed to have captured Pokrovsk, the key strategic city of Donetsk. Ukraine said fighting continued in the city.

“Everyone is tired, everyone is mentally and physically exhausted,” Denis, who has been serving in the Ukrainian army for the past two years, tells me.

Some of his friends have already slept. His unit is fighting in the besieged city of Kostyantnivka.

“It’s scary, really scary,” he says, describing drones that fly “like flies.” But he makes it clear that even after sacrificing so much, he is not ready to accept defeat.

He says, “No one will give Donbass to Putin. Of course not, this is our land.”

Handing over the area where at least a quarter million Ukrainians live – the Donetsk “fortress belt” cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka – would not be acceptable to most Ukrainians.

Russia has spent more than a year trying to capture Pokrovsk and Ukraine is reluctant to cede such important strategic centres.

But US officials believe Ukraine has fewer numbers and fewer guns.

There has already been an exodus of civilians from Donbass. This is ongoing because of peace talks. We have seen dozens of people, old and young, arriving at a reception center at the border in Lozova.

They took advantage of the dense fog to escape. Less chances of being targeted by drones. Around 200 people reach this one reception center every day. They have been given basic supplies and some money.

Yevheny and his wife Maryna have just arrived from Kramatorsk with their two children. “There are still more drones,” she tells me. “Even going out is becoming difficult. Everything is dangerous,” she says. “Even going to the store, you can’t come back.”

The family is planning to move to the capital Kyiv. Yevheny has little confidence in peace talks. He says, “That side (Russia) will not agree to our terms. We understand that nothing good will come from this.”

But others appear more willing to consider giving up their homes in exchange for peace.

Oleksandr says it is too dangerous to stop. His children have already gone to Germany. While he describes Russia’s maximalist demands as “probably unacceptable”, he appears willing to consider some of the features of the leaked peace plan – trade areas for peace. The original version of the US draft envisaged that the areas of Donbass still under Ukrainian control would be de facto handed over to Russia.

“Personally, I would agree to those terms,” he says.

Ina, who is running away with her five children, also believes that the time has come for a compromise. She could no longer hide her children, aged nine months to 12 years, from the dangers of living in Kramatorsk. He had tried to tell them that the explosions they had heard while taking shelter in the basement were just fireworks.

“The main thing is that there will be peace,” says Inna. When I ask if this means leaving her home forever, she replies, “In this situation, yes”. They are already planning to rebuild their lives elsewhere.

Some soldiers sent to Donbass are also voting with their feet. Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, there have been about 300,000 cases of desertion, or soldiers being absent without official leave – and the number has increased dramatically in the past year.

One of them is Serhiy – not his real name. We met them secretly. In an attempt to avoid arrest, his home has become his prison. Serhiy volunteered to fight at the beginning of the year, while most of the men in his unit were forcibly mobilized – “taken off the street”.

He says that when his unit was sent to the front near Pokrovsk, their strength was already low and they were not properly trained or equipped. “I ended up in a battalion where everything was a mess,” he says, though he still believes it was the exception, not the norm.

Serhi deserted in May after two of his friends fainted.

“If we had proper leadership and someone experienced in charge, I would not have gone,” he says. “I have come to serve, not to run away.”

Serhiy is still thinking about his next move and the possibility of returning to the army. But he echoes recent US warnings that the odds are stacked against Ukraine in this war.

Asked if he believed Ukraine could win, he was skeptical. “If you think logically, no. A country of 140 million against us with 32 million – logically it doesn’t add up.”

Additional reporting by Marianna Matveychuk