Net migration figures due on Thursday are expected to fall to pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000, according to a think tank.
British Future, which calculated the decline in overall migration, also found that most Britons are unaware of the falling numbers, and expect the figures to rise or stay the same.
Last week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said its updated projections, which include a more accurate count of migration by British citizens, show a higher and earlier peak in net migration of 944,000 in the year to March 2023. Net migration was previously estimated to reach 906,000 in the year to 30 June 2023.
Using the new methodology, the figures show that cumulative net migration over the period 2021 to 2024 was about 97,000 less than before.
The ONS now estimates that net migration will fall to 345,000 by December 2024, as migration by UK citizens increases.
By examining UK visa data, British Future believes the figures will fall further – but that the sustained decline is not being driven by the UK population.
New research published by Ipsos/British Future found that only 16% of the public expect net migration to decline in a year’s time, despite net migration halving last year and continuing to fall.
More than twice as many people (38%) expect net migration to increase, with 31% expecting it to remain the same.
According to the research, most of the public also thinks that net migration has increased in the last year – when in fact the number has halved.
New findings from the Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitude Tracker show that 56% of the public believe immigration has increased in the last year.
Government proposals released last week outlining restrictions on settlement and benefits for people coming to the UK are more restrictive than most of the public realize, research has found.
Half (50%) think immigrants working in graduate-level jobs should wait only five years or less before qualifying for settlement, and 53% think those working middle-skilled jobs should wait less than 10 years.
Dissatisfaction with how the government is handling immigration is at 56% – an increase from 48% last summer, although still down from the 69% who felt dissatisfied with the Conservative government in the February 2024 tracker.
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Of those who are dissatisfied, the most common reason given by 73% of dissatisfied respondents is: “The government is not doing enough to prevent migrant Channel crossings.” The other top reasons given are “being too generous towards migrants/asylum seekers” (65%) and “allowing too many people to claim asylum in the UK” (63%).
Sundar Katwala, director of British Future, said: “Net migration is falling, today’s figures are likely to show a further decline towards pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000 – yet our political debate has not caught up. As numbers move closer to ‘normal’ levels, politicians cannot just compete over who will reduce them further.
“The risk for Keir Starmer’s government, which is promising to get a grip on the numbers, is that continued crisis messages only reinforce the public perception that asylum and immigration are out of control.”
The Home Office has been contacted for comment.
The figures will be released hours after it was revealed that a rise in the number of people arriving in Britain on small boats could cost the Home Office an extra £1.4 billion.
The OBR document released ahead of the Budget on Wednesday said there would be £1.4 billion of “additional pressure” on the Home Office budget due to an almost 20% increase in the number of small boat arrivals and an 8% increase in asylum seekers in supported accommodation.
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