On several occasions after President Trump launched a large-scale air campaign against Iran last weekend, retaliatory strikes by recently manufactured Iranian drones have penetrated US defenses with serious consequences. For example, at least six US soldiers were killed and others wounded in an Iranian attack on a command facility in Kuwait on Sunday. CNN reported that Americans received no warning about incoming drones. According to CBS News, the fortifications around the facility protected it from car bombs, but not from direct overhead attack. “Basically we had no capability to defeat drones,” an unnamed military official told the network.
At a press conference this week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth downplayed the significance of the incident, saying, “You have air defenses, and there’s a lot coming in, and you shoot most of it down.” He added, “Occasionally, unfortunately you may have one – we call it a squirter – that makes its way in.” Yet the failure to strengthen relevant defensive measures at a facility located so close to Iran is a strange lapse in planning.
When a complex system begins to malfunction, the first signs are usually subtle. In the 3rd century, after the Roman Empire reached its geographical peak, literacy began to decline throughout Roman society. The level of education fell not only among soldiers, but also among officials, aristocrats, and even emperors. The Roman army continued to look formidable for years thereafter. It had good equipment and could march well. Yet it was no longer as advanced as it had been compared to Rome’s enemies. It fought as hard as ever, but less effectively.
US military capabilities are still far superior to Iran’s. Yet some developments in the US bombing campaign against Iran – a country left virtually helpless after Israel destroyed most of its air defenses last year – are revealing signs of tension.
The U.S. military’s supremacy over foreign adversaries is built on intensive training and the manipulation of advanced technology. In contrast, Hegseth is emphasizing lethality and the warrior ethos rather than learning and contemplation, preventing even American military personnel from taking courses at the most elite American universities. Yet the events of the past week underscore how show of force alone cannot defeat even militarily inferior enemies.
In Bahrain, a lone Iranian drone struck the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet, which patrols 2.5 million square miles of the world’s oceans. The incoming weapon destroyed an AN/TPS-59 radar unit intended to provide 360-degree aerial surveillance for the US military. In an instant, the Iranian equipment, perhaps worth $30,000, destroyed a piece of American military hardware estimated to be worth millions of dollars.
The current campaign against Iran began on America’s chosen agenda. Trump announced his intention to send more US troops to the region in January. It took some time to determine the positions of the two aircraft-carrier battle groups. Suicide drones are widely considered one of Tehran’s most effective weapons; Russia has used Iranian-made equipment to devastating effect against Ukraine.
A different worrying event points to a different set of vulnerabilities. On Sunday, three F-15E aircraft were shot down one after the other in a friendly fire incident over Kuwait. These were among the more advanced aircraft possessed by the US Air Force. Fortunately, no crew members were killed, but the mysterious incident raises uncomfortable questions. Were three F-15Es flying close enough to take them all out at once? How well were US forces communicating with Kuwaiti allies? Perhaps this incident occurred due to a misunderstanding at the moment of conflict, but the US’s ability to effectively cooperate with other countries under Trump is in great doubt.
Building military and diplomatic alliances with other governments with whom the United States shares interests has been another major source of American strength since World War II. Trump’s campaign in Iran has been closely coordinated with Israel, a longtime ally. But his administration has deliberately snubbed many other traditional US partners, particularly European partners, in a way that will have significant military consequences.
When Trump announced that the bombing of Iran had begun, European states categorically refrained from supporting the operation. The leaders of the three largest European democracies—Germany, France, and the United Kingdom—jointly announced that they were not participating in the strikes. A top EU official issued a vague but reticent statement saying “the latest developments in the Middle East are alarming.”
Since then, Britain has reluctantly agreed to let the US use a base on Cyprus for operations, but this limited help has clearly frustrated the Trump administration. This week, the president downplayed the so-called special relationship with Britain, calling it “clearly not what it was.” Hegseth complained that America’s traditional allies “wring their hands and clutching their pearls, whining and shouting about the use of force.” But he and Trump’s lack of enthusiasm should hardly be surprising. The president has repeatedly sided with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the biggest security threat to democratic Europe, and has sought to take Greenland from Denmark, another longtime ally. Americans and Europeans may still call each other “allies,” but the signs of rot are clear.
Just as the Roman Empire survived two more centuries after it began to collapse, the United States is not in danger of imminent collapse. But Trump’s rejection of planning, expertise and diplomacy is beginning to have real-world consequences.
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