Blake Cross dives into his favorite Hunter Henry prop punt for the AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Broncos.
New England is a 3.5-point favorite and is -205 on the moneyline, while Denver is at +170 DraftKings Sportsbook. The game’s total is set at 42.5 points.
Here are my top Hunter Henry prop bets for the AFC Championship Game.
Best Hunter Henry Prop Bets
Hunter Henry and the Patriots are one game away from reaching the Super Bowl. While New England’s defense took a break in the sense that it would have to face a backup quarterback, it would be a tough test for the offense. Drake Mays and his offense will be up against a Denver defense that ranked second in the NFL in total defense and third in scoring defense during the regular season. Patrick Surtain II is the best cover corner in the NFL, and Denver also has an elite pass rush that will make Mayes’ life difficult. Mays should dump the ball to make this play easier, especially early on, as he tries to get into the flow of the game.
When Mays works the ball in the short passing game, Hunter Henry is one of his favorite targets. Stefon Diggs was the team’s clear WR1, but Henry finished second behind him in both receptions and receiving yards. Henry finished second only to Trey McBride in total EPA this season. Denver specialized on the outside covering wide receivers, often forcing opposing offenses to feed their tight ends. During the regular season, Denver gave up 62 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, seventh-most in the NFL.
Denver has no interest in letting this game turn into a shootout. If this turns into a Drake Mays vs. Jarrett Stidham battle, the Patriots will win. Denver is looking to slow the game down and force Drake Mays to work his way down the field without making mistakes. This will emphasize taking away the deep ball that Mays loves to throw, and force him to be disciplined. This should provide plenty of action for Hunter Henry. After all, this is Drake Mays’ first career road playoff game, and it will be an incredibly hostile environment. Josh McDaniels may have told Mayes about the importance of taking what’s in front of him instead of forcing the ball. In many cases, this will mean delivering it to Hunter Henry.
My favorite Hunter Henry prop is that he had over 42.5 receiving yards against the Broncos. Henry isn’t the most elite athlete among tight ends, but he has sure hands. He’s also great at turning quickly upfield and gaining a few extra yards on each catch. Henry had 64 receiving yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card round against the Chargers. He surpassed that number in five of his last seven games of the regular season. He should get a lot of targets from Drake Mays in this game and once again gain over 42.5 yards.
Best Bet: Hunter Henry o42.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
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