Voters in the southern state went to the polls on Tuesday to select a successor to Republican Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July to pursue a career in the private sector.
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His vacant seat in the U.S. House of Representatives has paved the way for a surprisingly competitive off-season race, which critics say is a sign of growing dissatisfaction with Republican President Donald Trump.
The election pits Trump-backed candidate Matt Van Eps, a former state commissioner, against Democratic state Representative Aftin Behn.
“I am urging all America First patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District to please get out and vote for a phenomenal candidate and MAGA warrior, Matt Van Eps!” Trump said in a social media post on Tuesday.
“You can win this election for Matt, who has my full and complete support.”
Other national figures have dominated the race, including progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Vice President Al Gore, both of whom rallied on Behn’s behalf.
“The fact that this race is going on is showing that we are in a time when anything can happen and miracles can happen, including in Tennessee,” said Ocasio-Cortez, who praised Behn for her “courage.”
“Now we have this race within striking distance: what we call the margin of effort.”
National spotlight on local caste
The battle for control of Tennessee’s 7th congressional district begins less than a year before the crucial US midterm elections in November 2026.
During the midterms, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs. Currently, Republicans have a slim majority in that House as well as the US Senate.
Given how narrow the margin is, both Democrats and Republicans are trying to win every seat possible.
For example, right-wing bastion Texas passed a bill in August that would redraw the state’s congressional districts with the aim of giving Republican politicians five additional seats in the midterms.
The Trump-backed redistricting effort has inspired other states to make similar efforts. In left-leaning California, for example, voters approved a ballot initiative in November to redrawn the state’s congressional map to help Democrats gain five more seats, effectively negating Texas’ effort.
Tennessee’s 7th congressional district was not part of this year’s partisan redistricting effort. But in 2022, the Republican-held state legislature redrawn its congressional maps to give Republicans a greater edge.
The 2022 map split Nashville – a Democratic-leaning city – into three separate congressional districts, diluting the power of its Democratic voters. The 7th congressional district is one of the districts that now represents a portion of Nashville.
Previously, it was considered a safe right-wing district. But Behn is far behind Van Eps in most surveys.
An Emerson College poll gave him 46 percent support, while Van Eps received 48 percent. An additional 5 percent of people surveyed remained undecided.
But if Behn wins, her victory would further reduce the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Given how close the two candidates are in the polls, money from national groups has flowed into the race.
MAGA Inc. — a super PAC named for Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement — has invested $1 million in the race, in its first donation after the 2024 presidential election season. The left-leaning House Majority PAC has also spent $1 million to support Behn.
Republicans are hoping to recover from a crushing election defeat to the Democrats in the off-year elections in November.
For example, in New Jersey, Democrat Mickey Sherrill defeated a Trump-backed candidate to win the governor’s seat, and another Democrat, Abigail Spanberger, also emerged victorious in Virginia’s gubernatorial race.
Political analysts believe Tennessee’s tight race could point to an increasingly hostile political landscape for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Trump won Tennessee’s 7th congressional district by 22 points in 2024.
But a recent Gallup poll found that Trump’s popularity has fallen to the lowest point in his second term, with only 36 percent of voters saying they approve of his job. Disapproval also reached a new high, with 60 percent saying they disapprove of it.
Ahead of Tuesday’s vote, Republican leaders urged supporters to make their voices heard at the ballot box.
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters, “Special elections are strange animals, and anything can happen. And when you’re in a deep red district, sometimes people assume the Republicans, the conservatives, will win.”
“You can’t assume that, because anything can happen. So we encourage everyone to go out there and do that.”
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