It’s almost fantasy football playoff time, and you know what that means: squeezing every ounce of production out of every lineup slot.
This couldn’t be truer than in the team defense/special teams (D/ST) slot, where strategy matters far more than raw skill or talent on paper. If you believe in the “go with the guys who got you there” approach, you can go with the top three D/STs for the season: the Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks and Cleveland Browns. But if you’re not one of the lucky few fantasy managers who managed to land one of those units, or if your goal is to maximize the output from your D/ST spot in these crucial weeks, you’ve come to the right place.
Keep this in mind: The top defense in the first 12 weeks of the season isn’t always the same in the final weeks. Using results for 2022–24, only 40% of the top 10 D/STs during the first 12 weeks managed to average a top 10 finish in the final six weeks. The volatility between D/STs is as important at this stage of the season as it was in the first three months.
To adequately prepare you for the final regular-season fantasy weeks and fantasy playoffs, let’s refresh the D/ST road map to cover the final six weeks of the season.
Top 10 crimes to exploit
Here are the 10 crimes that, over the past five weeks, have been the best to stream D/ST:
1. Cleveland Browns: Averaged 7.5 fantasy points added to D/ST scores
2. New Orleans Saints: +6.9
3. Las Vegas Raiders: +4.7
4. Minnesota Vikings: +4.6
5. Arizona Cardinals: +4.3
6. Carolina Panthers: +3.6
7. Los Angeles Chargers: +2.7
8. Pittsburgh Steelers: +2.2
9. Washington Commanders: +1.6
10.Cincinnati Bengals: +1.3
The Tennessee Titans (17th, -1.0), New York Jets (18th, -1.0) and Miami Dolphins (14th, -0.3) have slipped out of the top 10 since our last update, though all find themselves within two points of the 10th-ranked Bengals. All remain viable matchups and would be in the above top 10 if we used full season data, but each has recently made subtle improvements that make lineup decisions less automatic for fantasy purposes. For example, the Titans have benefited greatly from improved ball control in recent weeks, especially from quarterback Cam Ward (0.5 turnovers over the past five weeks, down from 1.4 over the first seven).
Top 10 Crimes to Avoid
1. Los Angeles Rams: An average of 7.0 points subtracted from D/ST scores
2. Seattle Seahawks: -2.6
3. New York Giants: -2.4
4. Buffalo Bill:-2.2
5. San Francisco 49ers: -1.9
6. Detroit Lions: -1.9
7. Dallas Cowboys: -1.6
8 (tied). Baltimore Ravens: -1.5
8 (tied). Green Bay Packers: -1.5
10. Denver Broncos: -1.4
The Rams jumped from just outside this tier to the top spot in their four weeks since the bye, with the most offensive points per game (31.0), fewest sacks allowed (1.0) and fourth-fewest turnovers committed (0.25). Similarly, the Giants’ offense has been lukewarm since the switch to Jackson Dart, as they rank sixth in ESPN’s offensive efficiency metric over the past five weeks, compared to 18th over the first seven.
The Indianapolis Colts (13th, -1.3), first on the list in our last update, and the Kansas City Chiefs (11th, -1.4) are two offenses that clash, though both are still among the top six using seasonal data, and so should generally be avoided.
D/ST to be a lock for stretch run and playoffs: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Although ranking only 19th in scoring among D/ST for the season, the Bucs have proven their potential as a matchup-oriented fantasy play. He scored 16 fantasy points in Week 3 against the Jets and 25 points against the Saints, which are top-six schedule-adjusted matchups using seasonal data. Additionally, the Buccaneers have faced a treacherous schedule, including games against five of the 10 toughest D/ST matchups (again using seasonal data): the Rams, Lions, Bills, Seahawks and 49ers – against whom they scored only 12 fantasy points in those five games.
The final six weeks, however, bring a schedule for the Buccaneers in which they face teams that have been among the 14 most attractive D/ST matchups over the past five weeks (top 13 using full season data): ARI, NO, ATL, @CAR, @MIA, CAR.
Week 13 D/ST Recommendations
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Buffalo Bills (@PIT): Another absence from Aaron Rodgers (wrist) will increase the appeal of this matchup.
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Los Angeles Chargers (LV): He scored 14 fantasy points in the teams’ first meeting in Week 2 in Las Vegas.
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Miami Dolphins (NO): Despite facing a challenging schedule, they have scored more than seven fantasy points in three of their last four games.
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San Francisco 49ers (@CLE): The Raiders scored just seven fantasy points against the Shedure Sanders-led Browns.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ARI): Jacoby Brissett has been okay as the Cardinals’ quarterback, but opposing D/STs have averaged 8.3 fantasy points against him since he took over.
Start them (above 50% rostered): Rams (@CAR), Seahawks (MIN).
Avoid: Browns (SF), Packers (@DET), New England Patriots (NYG), Steelers (BUF).
Week 14 D/ST Recommendations
This is the final week in which teams have a bye and four teams are out.
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Vikings (WAS): Opponent D/STs have allowed a total of 22 fantasy points in Marcus Mariota’s three starts since Jayden Daniels’ elbow injury.
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Buccaneers (NO): They scored a season-high 25 fantasy points in their Week 8 meeting – the second-best score by any D/ST all season.
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Titans (@CLE): They have scored 30 fantasy points in their three most favorable matchups (using full season data).
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Commanders (@MIN): Opposing D/STs have averaged 12.3 fantasy points in JJ McCarthy’s six starts this season.
Start them (above 50% rostered): Ravens (PIT), Broncos (@LV), Rams (@ARI), Philadelphia Eagles (@LAC).
Avoid: Lions (DAL), Steelers (@BAL).
Week 15 D/ST Recommendations
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Panthers (@NO): They have made strides facing other favorable matchups, but to be fair, they only scored four fantasy points in the teams’ Week 10 meeting.
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Chicago Bears (CLE): Barring injuries, they have scored at least nine fantasy points in each of their three games against top-8 D/ST matchups (using full season data).
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Cowboys (Minn): They have scored in double figures in three of their last four games.
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Dolphins (@PIT): Rodgers’ status, again, impacts here.
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Saints (CAR): He scored 14 fantasy points in the teams’ Week 10 meeting.
Start them (above 50% rostered): Texans (ARI), Eagles (LV).
Avoid: Lions (@LAR), Rams (DET), Patriots (BUF).
Week 16 D/ST Recommendations
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Atlanta Falcons (@ARI): His two best single-game fantasy point totals came in his most favorable matchups (21 in Week 2 @MIN, 15 in Week 12 @NO).
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Bills (@CLE): They are averaging 7.2 fantasy points since the Week 7 bye.
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Giants (Min): The Giants have brought a lot of downsides to D/ST, but the Vikings have been one of the consistent ones. Best match.
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Jets (@NO): They have totaled 24 fantasy points in three games despite their deadline trades.
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Buccaneers (@CAR): D/ST have averaged 9.4 fantasy points against the Panthers over the past five weeks.
Start them (above 50% rostered): Texans (LV), Lions (PIT).
Avoid: Browns (BUF), Rams (@SEA), Patriots (@BAL), Steelers (@DET), Seahawks (LAR).
Week 17 D/ST Recommendations
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Bengals (ARI): For all their issues, they scored eight fantasy points against a good Patriots team in Week 12.
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Cowboys (@WAS): He scored a season-best 14 fantasy points in the teams’ Week 7 meeting.
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Giants (@LV): D/ST have scored double-digit fantasy points in three straight games against the Raiders.
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Titans (NO): D/STs have averaged 9.3 fantasy points against the Saints since Tyler Shaw took over at quarterback.
Start them (above 50% rostered): Browns (PIT), Lions (@MIN), Texans (@LAC), Steelers (@CLE), Seahawks (@CAR).
Avoid: Packers (BAL), Eagles (@BUF).
Week 18 D/ST Recommendations
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Falcons (No): He scored 15 fantasy points in the teams’ Week 12 meeting.
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Bengals (CLE): The last time they faced the Browns (Week 1), the Bengals scored seven fantasy points.
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Chiefs (@LV): He tied his season high with 13 fantasy points in the teams’ Week 7 meeting.
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Buccaneers (CAR): This is a rematch of their Week 16 matchup, but this time at home.
Start them (above 50% rostered): Ravens (@PIT), Broncos (LAC), Packers (@MIN), Rams (ARI).
Avoid: Steelers (BAL), Seahawks (@SF).
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