Voters divided on Trump’s job performance as economic issues top concern
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of the special election for U.S. Congress in Tennessee’s 7th District found that 48% of voters support Republican Matt Van Eps and 46% support Democrat Aftin Behn. Two percent planned to vote for one of the three third-party candidates on the ballot, and 5% were undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Van Eps’ overall support increases to 49% and Behn’s to 47%.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will depend on which groups are motivated to vote and who stays home on Election Day,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Those who report voting early break down for Behn, 56% to 42%, while those who plan to vote on Election Day break down for Van Epps, 51% to 39%. Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, with 64% of them supporting her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, with 61% among those over 70.”
Kimball said, “Here too there is a stark gender split; men trump Van Epps by nine points, 51% to 42%, while women trump Behn by six points, 50% to 44%.”
Behn and Van Eps each received a 47% favorable rating and 41% unfavorable rating among voters.
Kimball said, “Similar to the gender split in the ballot test, 54% of women have a favorable view of Behn, compared to 41% of men, and 52% of men have a favorable view of Van Epps, and 42% of women have a favorable view of Van Epps.”
President Trump has a 47% job approval rating and 49% disapproval rating among voters in the Tennessee 7th district.
Kimball said, “President Trump’s approval rating is a sharp contrast from last November, when he carried the district by 22 points. This decline is driven by independents, of whom 59% disapprove and only 34% approve.”
The economy is the top issue for 38% of Tennessee voters, followed by housing affordability (15%), healthcare (13%), threats to democracy (13%), immigration (6%), crime (5%), and education (5%).
Among those who say the economy is the biggest issue facing the state, 48% plan to support Van Eps and 44% plan to support Behn.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Tennessee 7th District survey was conducted November 22-24, 2025. The sample of likely voters, n=600, has a credibility interval of +/– 3.9 percentage points, the same as the poll’s margin of error (MOE). The data set was weighted by gender, education, race, age, and party registration, based on voter file data and US Census parameters.
It is important to remember that subgroups based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, bring with them higher credibility intervals as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be interpreted within the range of the poll’s scores, and a poll with a confidence interval of 95% will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data were collected by contacting voter lists of potential voters via MMS-to-Web texts using voter lists provided by Aristotle and online panel interviews provided by CINT. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle Voter file using respondents’ full names and zip codes. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey, with exact wording, can be found under Full results with complete results, demographics and cross tabulations. The survey was funded by Emerson College and Nexstar Media.
full results
<a href=