Those new tariffs could increase before refunds are issued, perhaps making the math more complicated. Just yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said Section 122 tariffs could be increased by 15 percent this week, The New York Times reported. And over the next five months, the tech industry could pay tariffs at the same level as Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, Bessant claimed.
However, Trump’s tariffs are extremely unpopular even among Republicans. Both experts agreed that Trump would likely be more thoughtful about tariffs before the midterms. And since he is unlikely to get much support from members of Congress focused on re-election, any changes will likely come by executive order. Dolan suggested that Trump’s concerns about inflation from tariffs might make him less willing to implement them.
“Restraint is probably not the right word,” Dolen suggested, but the president could begin to display “a little more reflection and thoughtfulness.”
Bryzteva told Ars that the CTA is also hoping that back-to-back court decisions might force Trump to reconsider his aggressive tariff strategy — especially given that his goals of increasing American manufacturing are not being achieved by him.
“This is a golden opportunity for them to reevaluate whether they want to impose more tariffs, because if you impose more tariffs, you create more chaos, you create more uncertainty, and you increase costs again,” Brzezita said.
Another complication is that the Supreme Court decision has emboldened critics of Trump’s tariffs. Although Trump and Bessant have said the Supreme Court decision is meaningless because they have other tariff avenues to explore, they will not replace their previous IEEPA tariffs, Brzezitawa said. And the administration is already facing legal pressure that could impact Section 122 authority to impose tariffs, with 20 states suing Trump to block his next tariff tool.
But it seems Trump is unlikely to abandon tariffs as a source of leverage in negotiations with all of America’s trading partners, and sometimes even in negotiations with American companies. And even if the Section 122 tariffs are blocked for a day, as the IEEPA tariffs were, Brzezita told Ars that the CTA is monitoring “very closely” additional tariffs that could be imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. They could impact products such as semiconductors or critical minerals, as well as any downstream products containing them, perhaps causing further damage to cash-strapped tech companies. About what costs or supply chain disruptions may occur in the near future.
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