Allowing Iran to continue controlling the vital waterway is likely to be highly unpalatable to Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
It also raises questions for oil producers group OPEC+, with analysts warning that handing control of Hormuz to Iran could fundamentally alter the balance of power within the organization by giving Tehran a potential veto over exports from rival members.
Ali Shihabi, a commentator close to the Saudi royal court, said the kingdom would seek “unimpeded” access to global markets.
“Allowing Iran any kind of control over the strait would be a red line,” Shihabi said. “The priority should be unhindered access through the strait.”
Despite the ceasefire, Saudi Arabia’s key east-west pipeline, which the kingdom is using to reroute oil exports to the Red Sea, was attacked by a drone on Wednesday, according to people familiar with the matter.
According to Kpler data, about 175 million barrels of crude and refined products are currently loaded onto 187 tankers in the Gulf — which could start moving now, depending on what happens in the strait.
Industry officials estimate that 300 to 400 ships are waiting to exit the bay as soon as it is possible to pass safely, with one describing it as a “car park”.
Several traders said they thought the situation in the coming days would resemble the system developed over the past fortnight, in which a handful of ships approved by Iran are allowed to pass through a specific route.
During the conflict it was largely limited to ships that normally traded with Iran and were not linked to the US, Israel or the Gulf states that provided the platform for the attacks.
Martin Kelly, head of consultancy at maritime intelligence group EOS Risk, said there was “no way” the backlog of ships waiting to exit could be cleared in two weeks.
About 10 to 15 ships per day might be able to transit the strait, he said, as the process was “quite time-consuming”, down from 135 ships before the war.
Additional reporting by Andrew England.
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