“Large joint libraries motivate companies to double down on proven IP because it reduces travel, trading and marketing risk,” said Robert Rosenberg, a partner at New York law firm Moses Singer, who focuses on intellectual property, entertainment, technology and data law.
Rosenberg also expects to see a shift toward live events, sports and unscripted content “for retention” if HBO Max sells.
In the short term, Rory Goodrich, research manager at analyst firm Ampere Analysis, predicted that WBD “will remain cautious when greenlighting new large-scale projects” until the acquisition is finalized.
In addition to the potential HBO Max sale, more merger activity could cause streaming services to deviate from their core selling point of offering bolder, quirky content.
As the industry consolidates, “sticky content” like procedurals, reality shows and “casual TV that drives longer viewing sessions” will take priority among mainstream, subscription-based streaming services, especially as they place more emphasis on ad-tier subscriptions, Goodman predicted.
A more stable future?
The new year will be formative for streaming and create a lasting impact for subscribers. We have discussed many negative impacts, but there may also be a silver lining. Although we may see more unrest, hopefully, we will also begin to see a path toward more stable streaming options.
Streaming subscribers cannot directly block mergers or price increases or control the streaming library. But with services like Netflix and Disney+ focused on becoming one-stop shops with huge libraries, there’s an opportunity for other services to hone their specialties and stand out by providing offbeat, unexpected, and rare content at more affordable prices.
As the landscape settles down, streamers should remain mindful of the importance of diversity to subscribers. According to Bill Michels, chief product officer of Gracenote, Nielsen’s content data business unit:
There will be some consolidation. But [connected TV] including scenarios, fast and [direct-to-consumer] The channels offer abundant video variety to the viewers, so the biggest challenge will be to connect the content with the right audience. Audience engagement depends on good content. Audience retention depends on ensuring that viewers never miss something.
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