Shortly before the US military invaded Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro, an account on Polymarket created something Very Questionably timed investment. The forecast market was betting on whether or when Maduro would be removed from power, with “out to January 31, 2026” prices as low as $0.07 late Friday. But within 24 hours of the military action, tens of thousands of dollars were invested in a newly created account, generating profits of several millions.
The account was created less than a week ago, and more than $30,000 was invested the day before the attack, resulting in a profit of more than $408,000. This activity was flagged on social media, with people speculating that the person making the bet was acting on insider information and perhaps even worked at the Pentagon. Joe Pompliano, an investor and podcaster, pointed out on Immediate X that “Insider trading is not only allowed in prediction markets; it is encouraged.”
Incidents of apparent insider trading have occurred before in prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, but the companies have shown little interest in stopping such behavior. This is partly because these companies believe that the value they provide is not a level playing field for investors, but rather providing news and insight. We contacted Clashy and Polymarket for comment, but have not yet received a response.
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