Darnell Mooney’s fantasy outlook
Mooney rewarded fantasy managers with 16.4 fantasy points last week. If you started it, congratulations on getting it over with. The production hid troubling underlying usage patterns, which should concern anyone considering moving on.
Through three quarters, Mooney had only two catches for 25 yards. Kirk Cousins connected with him on a 49-yard post route for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter.
That single play completely saved his fantasy day and prevented another single-digit performance from extending his streak. Without that explosive score, Mooney would have posted nearly three fantasy points despite opportunities reportedly being created in the absence of Drake London.
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Mooney only got three targets against the New Orleans Saints. The notion that Mooney receives increased volume when London sits has no solid support from actual game data. This target does not appear clearly in the distribution. Cousins and offensive coordinator Zach Robinson has shown no desire to force-feed Mooney if the WR1 is unavailable.
Kyle Pitts’ Fantasy Outlook
Pitts served as Cousins’ primary target early on against New Orleans. The veteran quarterback found his tight end on the game’s opening drive and was targeted five times overall. Unfortunately, execution failures ruined any chances of a fantasy production. Cousins had 16 completions on 23 attempts for 199 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.
Pitts caught two passes for 25 yards. He also conceded two goals, continuing a pattern of unreliability that has plagued his season. The combination of the inability to create separation and inconsistent hands creates an impossible situation for fantasy purposes regardless of target volume.
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Fighting has continued in recent weeks. Pitts has failed to reach 8.0 fantasy points in four consecutive games. His best performance on the season was 18 fantasy points, and he has crossed double-digit scores only four times in 11 contests. These numbers reflect a player’s performance relative to his draft capital and physical equipment
The former fourth-overall selection appears to be more comfortable with Cousins under center than Penix. However, the increased opportunity means nothing when performance remains so poor.
Should you start Mooney or Pitts this week?
New York presents an average defensive matchup for both of Atlanta’s pass-catchers. The Jets rank in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to both wide receivers and tight ends.
The real concern stems from Atlanta’s aggressive approach. With Penix unavailable for the rest of the season after suffering an ACL tear, the Falcons have little interest in throwing if they can avoid it. Cousins completed 16 passes in a game Atlanta controlled last week. Robinson emphasized that Cousins works best under center with play-action opportunities rather than spread formations.
Game environment factors work against passing volume expectations. Atlanta opened as a 2.5-point road favorite, totaling only 39.5 points. The Jets are sitting at 2-9 with minimal offensive firepower, making it unlikely they will force the Falcons into shootout situations. New York won’t push Atlanta to deviate from its run-first identity featuring Bijan Robinson
Fantasy managers should leave both Mooney and Pitts on the bench in Week 13. Mooney lacks the target volume to provide a reliable floor, making him completely dependent on touchdowns.
Pitts has even less appeal given his execution failures and limited scoring. Neither player has enough talent this week to overcome their aggressive environment and usage barriers
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