Sean Bernard details his picks and predictions for the Santa Clara Broncos vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels college basketball matchup.
This is the second matchup between these two West Coast Conference teams this season. They faced off for the first time on January 17, resulting in a 62–54 Santa Clara victory. Both of these teams are in the top three seeds in the WCC, with Gonzaga taking the top spot.
Looking at the odds, St. Mary’s enters as a 5.5-point favorite with moneyline odds of -265 DraftKings Sportsbook. Santa Clara has +215 chances to pull off an upset, with the game set for a total of 153.5 points.
Santa Clara vs. St. Mary’s Prediction, Preview
The Santa Clara Broncos have a 23-6 record on the season and go 14-2 in conference play. They are entering this matchup coming off a win over San Francisco in the previous game and have won 10 of their last 11. Their losses have come against Gonzaga (twice), Saint Louis, New Mexico, Arizona State and Loyola Chicago. On the season, Santa Clara has gone 16–12 against the spread, and the game has gone over in 19 of their 28 qualifying games. No hits in its season opener against Humboldt State DraftKings Sportsbook.
Herb Sendek’s team is scoring 84.0 points per game, which ranks 28th among D1 teams. The Broncos are 38th in offensive rating, 52nd in field goal percentage, 169th in three-point percentage and 27th in three-point attempts per game. Santa Clara is holding opponents to 72.0 points per game, which ranks 125th out of 365 qualifying teams. The Broncos are 67th in defensive rating, 226th in opponent field goal percentage and 124th in opponent three-point percentage.
Christian Hammond leads the team with 16.4 points per game. He also added 3.0 rebounds and 2.4 assists while shooting 40.4% from beyond the three-point arc. Elijah Mahy added 14.4 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists, while Allen Graves is the only other player to average in double figures with 11.1 points, along with a team-high 6.6 rebounds and shooting 40% on three-point attempts. Alexander Gavalyugov, Bucky Oboy, Brenton Napper and Jake Ensminger also play notable roles in the rotation.
Saint Mary’s record is 25–4 on the season and 14–2 in conference play. The program enters this matchup on a six-game win streak, with its last loss coming on January 31. The Gaels’ four losses have come against Vanderbilt, Boise State, Santa Clara and Gonzaga. On the season, Saint Mary’s is 18-10 against the spread, with no chances for a matchup with DII UC Merced, and the overall score for the game is 12-16 over/under.
Paulius Murauskas tops the field in production with 19.0 points per game along with 7.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists. Joshua Dent adds 13.2 points and 5.7 assists while leading the conference with 36.0 minutes per game. Mickey Lewis is the only other player to average double figures with 13.1 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.0 assists. Andrew McKeever grabbed a WCC-leading 9.2 rebounds per game to go along with his 8.6 points, while Dillon Shaw, Liam Campbell, Harry Wessels and Tony Duckett completed most of the notable rotation.
Saint Mary’s scores 78.4 points per game, which ranks 126th in the nation. They are 50th in offensive rating, 110th in field-goal percentage, 14th in three-point percentage and 26th in rebounds per game. On the other end, the Gaels are holding opponents to the seventh-fewest points per contest at 64.3. They ranked 17th in defensive rating, 25th in opponent field-goal percentage and 28th in opponent three-point percentage.
Santa Clara vs. St. Mary’s Picks, Best Bet
In the first match between these two teams, Santa Clara won 62–54. The Broncos covered the 1.5-point spread, and the game total came in well below the 152.5 line. It was a wire-to-wire win for Santa Clara with both teams struggling to shoot the ball. The Broncos shot only 41% from the field and 21% on three-point attempts. However, the Gaels struggled even more, shooting 31% from the field and 18% on three-point attempts.
These are the two top teams in the WCC, and this is a matchup that both sides will be ready to give their best. I’m leaning towards cashing in again tonight, with both teams looking to push their opponent to score every single point. But I’m backing St. Mary’s to tie the season series and cover the 5.5-point spread.
The Gaels have performed better at home this season and are 10-4 against the spread in these contests. They are 16-9 ATS as favorites and 14-3 ATS when playing on equal rest, which will be the case tonight. The 54 points that St. Mary’s were limited to in the first game were the fewest points scored by the Gaels all season. His next lowest points in a game was 63, and it came with his worst shooting percentage from the field and beyond the three-point line all season. Santa Clara deserves credit for this, but has not proven to produce this level of defensive impact on a consistent basis. This was the third fewest points Santa Clara had allowed all year, with only Louisiana and Cal Poly Humboldt scoring less.
Expect a better effort from Saint Mary’s in the second matchup and the Gaels will play closer to the standard they have set all season. Both teams have conference records of 14-2 on the season, and this matchup will almost certainly decide who will finish second in the conference. St. Mary’s is the better team overall and will be ready to put in a concentrated effort to prove that. The Gaels’ loss to Santa Clara in the previous matchup was their worst loss all season, and they have won eight of their last nine since this point. They are much better than they showed in the first matchup and will be ready to prove that tonight.
Best Bet: St. Mary’s -5.5 (-115)
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