Tesla-compiled estimates show Q4 deliveries are expected to decline 15% compared to last year
A Tesla-The compiled average of analyst estimates projects deliveries in the fourth quarter at 422,850, which would be a 15% decline from the 495,570 the company delivered in the same quarter last year, if realized. The full-year estimate of 1.6 million vehicles would represent an 8% decline from 2024 and the second annual decline for the EV company. These estimates are well below consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg and FactSet, which have been declining since last month.
Market-implied odds derived from event contracts show that most traders think Tesla deliveries in the quarter ending in December will be more than 410,000 but less than 420,000.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC – probabilities are referenced or sourced from KalshiX LLC or ForecastX LLC.)
While Tesla typically shares a compilation of analyst estimates with institutional investors, this is the first time the company has shared those numbers on its website. Tesla’s numbers include estimates from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Opco, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exen, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham & Co., HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald and William Blair.
The actual numbers are expected on Friday.
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