Meanwhile, half of the players in the top 10 during the 2025 season (including three of the four ranked players) were teenagers with little or no experience in the upper levels of the minors. With changes in demographics comes a lot of instability.
This year marks my 13th season ranking the Red Sox’s top prospects for Baseball America. Here’s a look at his profile with related questions:
23 years old, graduate in MLB
MLB: 6.06 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate. Minor (3 levels): 3.04 ERA, 37% K rate, 6% BB rate.
Main question: Does he have a secondary starter mix?
Toole’s big league debut was eye-catching after bursting through the system in his first full professional season. He has the ability to dominate with his fastball, but he needs to land a representative mix of secondary pitches in the strike zone to profile as a starter. At a young age, he showed the ability to do this with his cutter, slider, sweeper, curveball, and changeup – all of which made huge strides in 2025. He lost the experience he pitched in the big leagues, forcing him into the bullpen. He’ll likely begin 2026 in the Red Sox rotation looking to re-establish his full mix, but if Toole’s repertoire can look anything like last year in Portland and Worcester, he’ll be a mainstay of the Red Sox rotation for years.
20 years old, finished in Double A
minor (3 levels, .278/.335/.388, 8 HR, 36 XBH, 10% K rate, 7% walk rate.
Key question: How much pop will he have?
After Arias — the best defensive shortstop in the system — showed surprising flashes of power in 2024, he returned to his natural, all-fields, line-drive approach in 2025. In doing so, he posted some of the highest in-zone contact rates in the Minors (only 6 percent of swings against pitches in the zone). But he doesn’t hit the ball with loft, leading to questions about whether he projects as more than an average everyday shortstop. Still, as a player who just turned 20, there’s a chance he can add strength and learn to drive more pitches. If he can reach 15 home runs with multiple doubles, excellent defense and hits for a high average, he is a potential infield anchor.
23 years old, graduate in MLB
MLB: 2.33 ERA, 37% K rate, 5% walk rate. Minor (2nd level): 2.60 ERA, 32% K rate, 10% BB rate.
Key question: Can he add strength to regain starter durability?
He initially showed an impressively advanced mix and feel for pitching in his big league debut, but as he worked his way deeper into the game, his velocity diminished – a continuation of a pattern that was also evident during his minor league season, when he excelled for four innings at one point before proving shaky over his fifth. Can Early, who has already added considerable power and velocity in his pro career, gain more strength to stay strong through five or six innings at a time?
21 years old, hasn’t made pro debut
Minor: did not pitch
Key question: Can he break into the big leagues quickly in 2026?
Tole started in High A and pitched strongly through the minor teams to reach the big leagues in his first full pro season. Witherspoon, a first-round pick this year, is significantly more advanced entering pro ball than Toole, with more power in his arsenal as well as a more far-reaching mix of pitches. As a result, it’s at least within the realm of possibility that he could start the year in Double A, with the real possibility of zooming up to the big leagues.
Age 22, finishing in Triple A
Minor (2nd level): 7.71 ERA, 44% K rate, 33% walk rate.
Key question: Can he get back into the strike zone?
Perales returned from year-ending Tommy John surgery and showed power, but could not find his triple-digit heater in the strike zone. This isn’t unusual for a pitcher coming off Tommy John, but the promise made before blowing in 2024 isn’t guaranteed to return. If Perales can utilize his power arsenal, his potential as a starter could surpass that of any pitcher in the organization. But based on his control and the effort he puts into his delivery, he has significant reliever risk.
Age 22, finishing in Triple A
MLB: 1 for 7, 2 BB, 5 KS Minor (2nd level): .267/.340/.470, 21 HR, 42 XBH, 27% K rate, 9% walk rate.
Key question: Can he limit his chase rate?
Garcia has some strong fundamentals, hitting for power and contributing to strong outfield defense. He has made amazing progress over the past two seasons, which shows room for growth for a young player. But he swung at 35 percent of pitches outside the strike zone in Triple A, well above the big league average of 28 percent. If he doesn’t improve, he is a platoon player.
19 years old, passed High A
minors (1 level): 5.45 ERA, 28% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate.
Key Question: What will work against the Left?
Valera, who missed three months due to right elbow soreness but returned late in the season, blasted righties with his high-90s triple-digit fastball, sweeper and slider. Lefties, with the help of at-bat luck, hit .341/.398/.529 against them, and while his changeup shows swing-and-miss ability, he will need to improve its consistency to avoid platoon splits that will jeopardize his ability to start. But as a teenager with a huge frame and a rocket arm, he has mid-rotation upside.
18 years old, passed High A
Minor (3 levels): .281/.363/.390, 4 HR, 29 XBH, 16% K rate, 10% walk rate.
Main question: Can he drive the ball in the air?
Gonzalez has more raw power than anyone in the system, and probably more than anyone in the minors. But while he hits 110-mile-per-hour rockets with shocking frequency for an 18-year-old, and he shows unusually few swing-and-miss traits for a 6-foot-4-inch tower, he generally hits the ball on the ground. His 57.4 percent ground-ball rate was in the top 2 percent of minor leaguers with at least 300 plate appearances. If he can make swing path adjustments to get the ball in the air, he has 30-plus homer potential. If not, he lacks the defensive value to carve out a clear role in the big leagues.
19 years, finished in low A
Minor (2nd level): 2.25 ERA, 29% K rate, 9% walk rate.
Key question: How good can his fastball be?
Fajardo, acquired in a trade with the White Sox for Cam Boozer last December, opens eyes as one of the top performers in the system in 2025. He showed a solid fastball/slider/changeup mix, and actually used his slider more than anything else. His fastball, which averages 94 mph and tops out at 96, requires accuracy to miss the bat in Low A and can become vulnerable as he moves up the ladder. If he can add strength to sit at 96, he has a chance to become a back-end starter.
17 years old, graduate in DSL
Minor (1st level): .307/.362/.428, 2 HR, 14 XBH, 15% K rate, 9% walk rate.
Main question: What will happen when he reaches America?
It’s not hard to dream about Soto, a switch-hitting shortstop who didn’t swing and miss a lot and who hit the ball unusually hard for his age and level. But a 17-year-old teenager arrives at DSL with many unknown people. Will Soto add size that moves him from shortstop to third base? Will he follow the path of players like Yoelin Cespedes and Miguel Bliss, who looked like top prospects at the complex level but struggled against better pitching? Or will he hold his own and move up on the team’s prospect list? His ceiling competes with any positional player in the system.
Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. chase him @alexspear,
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