Premier League predictions and best bets: Can Chelsea become title contenders? | Football News

Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight into the Premier League and recommends both Liverpool and Arsenal not win on Super Sunday.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester United, Sunday 12 noon

Remove the names, hide the crests and if it was Team A hosting Team B Crystal Palace would be in trouble.

Because every measurable aspect of Palace’s game has more structure, coherence and repetition than anything Manchester United is offering right now. That’s why the 13/10 offer for a Palace home win is losing value.

This is not about history. It’s about now. And right now, United play football that resembles a flickering lightbulb: bright at times but a bad moment away from plunging a room into darkness.

The Palaces, under Oliver Glassner, are the opposite. They look like a team. A working one. A confident one. A side that knows how to create, how to control.

What you’re getting here is great value, great value, a clear identity, a team that has weight and repeatability in its game, not some historical brand driven by entertainment money in the markets. Home win.

Score Prediction: 3-1

Aston Villa vs Wolves, Sunday 2.05pm, live on Sky Sports

The value doesn’t hold up in the traditional markets here as Aston Villa are rightly dominating across the board – it’s no secret that Wolves are on the improve under Rob Edwards and such is their set piece output. His team carefully prepares the set of plays.

His Luton team were ranked as the best team in the Championship based on set piece goals and expected goals output in both spells in that league, while his Forest Green team finished second for expected goals from set pieces during their promotion from League Two.

We’ve already seen signs in one game that Wolves are taking set pieces more seriously after creating 0.77 worth of expected goals from those scenarios in the defeat to Crystal Palace. Ladislav Krajci, who has taken 10 shots in his last 10 games, was the main threat last weekend and the first contact from the corner. He looks a tasty bet at 12/1 to score with Sky Bet.

Score Prediction: 2-1

Nottingham Forest vs Brighton, Sunday 2.05pm, live on Sky Sports

If there’s one thing betting teaches you, it’s that bad beats are hard to swallow, no matter how long you’ve been in the game. And last week’s approach, Brentford’s double chance at Brighton – still lingers like a stubborn hangover. The logic was sound, the bet seemed to be paying off, right up until those football gods decided that Brentford would lead 1-0 with 10 minutes to go and Igor Thiago would miss a penalty with the final kick.

But here we are again looking at a very familiar setup. And yes, I’m going back to the well to compete with Brighton in this spot because this well is still full of value. Brighton, for all their fluidity and beautiful patterns, do not enjoy playing teams that go straight, turn them.

Under Fabian Herzeler, Brighton have won 19 of 34 Premier League games when their opponents have played less than 15 percent of their passes long, but have won only two of 16 games otherwise. Forest played 26 per cent of passes long against Liverpool last week and a similar approach puts them in a great position to get another result with 10/11 on a draw, no bets.

Score Prediction: 2-1

West Ham vs Liverpool, Sunday 2.05pm, live on Sky Sports

Virgil van Dijk has committed nine fouls in his last five matches. The imperious, sometimes untouchable defender has disappeared and been replaced by a much more ruthless version who is making more mistakes and committing more fouls.

It took Van Dijk 11 games to reach five fouls at the start of last season – now it looks like he could make five in a game.

The player who used to approach matches without putting any pressure on anyone is suddenly hacking, catching and stepping into late challenges like a man trying to put out a fire with a watering can. Playing next to Ibrahima Konate can do that to a player.

His direct opponent Callum Wilson is clever at drawing defenders into awkward contact and picking up soft fouls. Go back two seasons ago and Wilson was drawing 1.6 fouls per 90 in the Premier League and has conceded five fouls in four starts under Nuno Espirito Santo, who now trusts him to be the focal point.

The price at 11/2 with Sky Bet for Van Dijk to commit at least two fouls is huge – the best price of the season area. Get the price before the market rises.

Score Prediction: 2-2 | Jones’ best bet knows: Virgil van Dijk will commit two or more fouls (11/2 with Sky Bet)

Chelsea vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

This game reeks of caution.

Those anticipating that one of these teams is going to play “statement-making football” may be disappointed as these games could turn into an exercise in risk management, especially when you consider the busy schedules that both teams are facing at the moment.

When it comes to control and not taking unnecessary risks, Enzo Maresca and Mikel Arteta are cut from the same cloth, Arteta especially in these types of games away from home. Last season, Arsenal won only once in their eight matches with top nine opponents, drawing five of them. They have already lost at Anfield this season and were seriously exposed in a very tough fixture at Newcastle.

Arteta plays these games as if a draw is fine in the grand scheme of things – and he’s not wrong.

Both teams know that one point keeps the story intact. Nothing is lost, everything remains possible. Stalemate, a bet that no one wants to support, is the smartest way to approach the market outright with Sky Bet offering 21/10.

Score Prediction: 1-1

Jones Nose’s best bet:

• Double of 1 point and over 2.5 goals on Ryan Cherky being fouled at least twice in Sunderland vs Bournemouth (4/1 with Sky Bet)
• First place on Virgil van Dijk to commit at least two fouls against West Ham (11/2 with Sky Bet)