Although it was strange to see the Golden Globes partnering with PolyMarket for their most recent awards show, the collaboration wasn’t shocking considering the way people have started using prediction markets to gamble on basically anything. Prediction markets are used to bet on everything from when war might break out to who will win the Nobel Peace Prize, so why wouldn’t people be interested in betting on more entertaining and less consequential things, like the chances of celebrities winning industry accolades?
But this “everything is gambling” culture has given prediction market firms the opportunity to embed themselves in other institutions, such as the media – in a way designed to erode people’s understanding of the workings of those institutions. And this year’s Oscars has become another major betting event that normalizes the sportsbook-ification of reality.
Although the Oscars have not officially partnered with any prediction market companies, on Friday Kalshi announced that it is working with Rotten Tomatoes to “provide real-time prediction market data” that will be incorporated into the review aggregator’s editorial and social coverage. Kalshi says its data will have no impact on Rotten Tomatoes scores, but the companies believe the information will provide “an additional layer of fan insight for awards season.”
“Rotten Tomatoes has helped shape the cultural conversation around film and television for decades,” said Will Brackett, head of partnerships at Kalshi. “By adding Kalshi’s real-time predictions, we are giving fans a dynamic view of how viewers view the awards race in real time.”
What Brackett is selling here is the idea that Kalshi measures public sentiment in a way that can be trusted because all its users are trying to do is make money. This kind of numbers-based approach to thinking about film seems extremely counterproductive to a true appreciation of the art, but that hasn’t stopped people from trying out prediction markets. Compared to last year, Kalshi has seen a large increase in the volume of business associated with the results of this year’s awards ceremony. Some of that growth can be attributed to more people becoming familiar with these platforms. But it also feels like this particular crop of films has inspired fans to become more personally invested in their success.
Nearly every one of the leading contenders for Best Picture this year has spawned passionate fans who have played a significant role in shaping the larger discourse around each film. People advocating for Oscar-nominated films isn’t a new phenomenon, but in 2025, we’ve seen moviegoers become active in a way that shows how the concept of being a fan has changed.
At least online, movie fans have become more reliant on box office totals and production costs as metrics of whether a feature is “good”. Obsessing with numbers prevents thoughtful conversations about art. but in sinners‘ Case in point, fan interest in those statistics led to a moment when you could see how racial bias was negatively impacting the way the industry reported about the film. Although sinners It outperformed expectations by earning an impressive $48 million in its opening weekend, Diversity, vultureAnd the new York Times Each introduced pieces that cast doubt on whether the film could succeed. sinners Did A lot more money would have to be made before it ultimately became a financial win, but that questionable scrutiny was not applied. one fight after anotherWhich garnered Oscar buzz almost immediately, despite falling short of box office expectations.
Of course, there were other aspects of the films that people explored, like Ryan Coogler’s exploration of Southern blackness and Paul Thomas Anderson’s approach to telling a story about black political revolutionaries. Those conversations and all the stunts performed by Timothée Chalamet during promotion Marty Supreme Fans got even more reason to pay attention as these films built up hype throughout awards season. And now, the prediction market is giving people a new way to take everything they’ve internalized about the Oscars and turn it into chances to win money.
Unlike a casino, where you are betting against the house on games with certain outcomes, prediction markets are operated by peer-to-peer contracts where two parties are betting yes or no as to whether a particular outcome will occur. This makes platforms like Polymarket and Kalashi very suitable to act as intermediaries for placing bets on events such as awards shows with a variety of possible outcomes. Since the Oscars are based on the subjective opinions of voters, there is no way for bettors to actually know which films will come away with gold statuettes at the ceremony. But that hasn’t stopped people from reading awards campaigns like tea leaves.
Each ceremony that takes place before the Oscars gives people a general idea of how members of organizations such as the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences vote. It is possible cast your vote. The number of other awards a film wins is what shapes stories about the ups and downs of the Oscars. But other factors may also be involved, such as this year’s failure at the BAFTAs. sinners Stars Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo and i swear Executive producer John Davidson. After the BAFTAs, Jordan defeated Chalamet for Best Actor, and sinners Won the Best Ensemble Award at the recently renamed Actors Awards. And sinners‘ The sudden momentum in this late stage of the game has led more bettors to see the film as an Oscar favorite.
Oscar gambling is much less ethically questionable than other things that market enthusiasts do trying to make a quick buck. But these stakes still foster a suspicious culture that encourages people to view the world through an opportunistic, gamified lens. Companies like Kalshi want to be involved in every possible aspect of our lives. Betting on the Oscars is a relatively frictionless way to start the process.
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