Holiday travelers who avoided largely disruptive weather in the United States before Thanksgiving may not be so lucky during their post-holiday trips.
A new storm that first impacted the Pacific Northwest on Thanksgiving night is expected to turn into a full-blown, cross-country storm with the potential to dump heavy rain and snow accumulation over more than 1,000 miles of the country this weekend.
The storm will also open the door to a new, frigid wave of cold Arctic air, bringing temperatures to the skies for millions of people just before the December calendar.
Even before all this, a powerful, fast-moving winter storm is already causing problems for some travelers. Parts of the Midwest have already received several inches of snowfall and strong winds, and blizzard warnings are in effect for parts of Wisconsin and Michigan as the storm moves through the Great Lakes on Wednesday and heads toward Canada overnight.
There will be plenty of lake effect snow following the storm for the rest of the week. A lake-effect snowfall warning for up to 20 inches of snowfall and winds up to 50 mph is in effect from northeastern Ohio to northwestern Pennsylvania and southwestern New York.
Here’s what to expect from the storm after Türkiye Day.
The storm will enter the Pacific Northwest on Thanksgiving night and bring rain to the region and some snow at higher elevations.
It will slide into the Rockies on Friday as cold air begins to move into North America. As the storm approaches winter, snowfall will begin across the Northern Rockies and parts of the Northern Plains Air.
The center of the storm is expected to move across the plains by Saturday morning and strengthen throughout the day as it moves toward the Midwest.
Saturday will see rainfall over most of the central part of the country with a clear dividing line between rain and snow. There will be rain south of its center while snow will fall across parts of Nebraska, Kansas and the Midwest. As the storm intensifies, the winds will also become stronger.
Areas east of the Mississippi River will have to deal with the storm on Sunday, while the center of the country will be hit with a blast of cold air in the middle of winter. There is a possibility of snow over parts of the Great Lakes and northern Appalachians and rain in the South.
The storm will move off the east coast early Monday.
It is difficult to know exact snowfall amounts several days before the storm, but it is increasingly likely that a band of accumulating snow will stretch from the Rockies to the Appalachians by late November.
So far, the two most commonly used weather forecast models – the GFS and ECMWF – are projecting snowfall over similar areas, but the amounts differ in some places. The discrepancy has to do with how each model is estimating both the strength of the storm and the amount of cold air available.
A more accurate forecast of snowfall is likely to emerge by Friday. Despite this, this is the most extensive seasonal fall snow accumulation from September to November this year.
The storm will likely bring snowfall on Saturday to locations around the Great Lakes, such as Chicago, where lake-effect snowfall has already resulted in snowfall this season.
Other usually snowy areas have been far less affected. Minneapolis has been averaging at least a half-foot of snowfall so far, but the first measurable snowfall — at least 0.1 inches — was recorded Tuesday night. This is three weeks later than usual.
The rain may also disrupt holiday travel to the south of snowy areas. Concern is growing that heavy rain – and potentially some storms – could lead to flash flooding in parts of the south from Saturday.
Parts of East Texas – including Houston – southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana could experience flash flooding Saturday.
Continuous rain will extend to the eastern part on Sunday. This rainfall is unlikely to cause flash flooding, but travel may be slowed for anyone driving in the area.
Cold air has already started moving across the country ahead of Thanksgiving, but even colder air is on the way this weekend.
A new round of significant temperature drops will begin Saturday in the Rockies and Plains as the storm brings arctic air into the US. High temperatures in the teens and low 20s are expected as far south as Kansas.
Temperatures will drop to very cold levels overnight into Sunday morning. Lows will be in the single digits across much of the north-central US and below zero in North Texas.
Sunday’s high temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than much of Central America. Parts of the Midwest could see highs below zero, which would be up to 30 degrees colder than normal.
Cold air will move east and overnight temperatures are expected to be at or below zero across much of the Lower 48. Temperatures could reach several degrees below zero on Monday, December 1 in parts of Montana, the Dakotas and the upper Midwest.
December marks the beginning of meteorological winter – from December to February – and the first weeks of the season will definitely feel like that.
The upcoming Arctic blast could be a preview of even colder weather to come in December due to the disruption of the polar vortex.
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