polymarket threat

Polymarket Trader Who Won Big on Start of Iran War Betting Even Bigger on Impending Ceasefire

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polymarket threat

On Sunday, X user @itslirrato (bio: “Chief Prediction Markets Enjoyer”) noticed some suspicious activity on Polymarket. Ten accounts that had no apparent connection other than their activity were all betting on a ceasefire in Iran by the end of the month. In total, they have wagered $160,000, and if their predictions are correct, their winnings will total $1.04 million.

According to MarketWatch’s Gordon Gottsagen, one of those accounts, named NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS, is the most suspicious of all the accounts. The account was created in late February, and began by placing two identical bets on US attacks against Iran by February 28 and March 1 – one for $11,283, and one for $7,600. The American attacks began on February 28, so a total of $85,000 was paid on both bets.

And now, see for yourself: NothingEverFreakingHappens has two more active bets: $16,582.45 if “US vs Iran ceasefire till March 31?resolves “yes” And $24,265.52 if “US vs Iran ceasefire till April 15?Resolves “yes”.

Shortly after a bipartisan pair of senators, Adam Schiff and John Curtis, introduced something called the “Prediction Markets Gambling Act” on Monday – which would ban sports betting on PolyMarket and its rival Kalashi – both sites announced new actions to police insider trading.

According to the Associated Press, Polymarket, for its part, has changed its rules so that users—athletes, in particular—are prohibited from trading on a contract if they have the ability to influence whether or not the event occurs, or if they have confidential knowledge of the event in question. Although the new policy is apparently designed for professional boxers, the new policy could affect government officials and private contractors with security clearance.





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