In their cryptocurrency-based prediction market, customers bet real money on real-world events – everything from elections to sports, entertainment and even conflict. Polymarket has outperformed the experts in predicting some outcomes.
“It’s the most accurate thing the human race can do right now, until someone else creates some kind of super crystal ball,” Coplan said.
What is Polymarket?
Coplan, a native of New York, dropped out of New York University in his freshman year. When Covid hit, I found myself looking for simple answers to complex questions – the kind that could, in some cases, be answered by prediction markets. She remembers asking herself questions like: “When will this end? When will the vaccine be ready? When will shelter in place end?”
He was 22 when he launched Polymarket as a place for people to bet on current events.
“And as a result, when a lot of people are betting, you get betting probabilities, which basically tell you how likely each outcome is,” Coplan said.
When 60 Minutes met with Coplan, he showed correspondent Anderson Cooper Polymarket’s main page, which had 15 categories to choose from, including politics, culture, sports and finance. Within each, there are questions – about 10,000 – about upcoming events for people to place bets.
“If something is being discussed in the news, if something is important, whether it’s geopolitically, you know, macroeconomically, culturally, we want to have a PolyMarket for it,” Coplan said.
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To place a bet, customers click on one of the questions. Users can take a “yes” or “no” stance on each.
Coplan said, “If you’re right you can make money. If you’re wrong you can lose money.” “And as a result, it produces information that is actually useful to people.”
The percentages next to the questions indicate the odds, which are determined by all other bets already placed. As more people place bets and news emerges, the odds change.
One of the most popular questions came about a year before the 2024 presidential election: Who will be the winner of the presidential election? President Trump began distancing himself in early October. In the final month of the campaign, while most pollsters were saying the race was too close, Polymarket correctly predicted the outcome of the race.
“The percentage of people voting for a candidate is not the same as the percentage of people who are likely to win,” Coplan said. “You’ll look at PolyMarket and it’ll say ‘70%-30% for Trump.’ And people say, ‘There’s no way it’s going to be 70%-30%.'”
Coplan says that unlike surveys that ask who you’re most likely to vote for, Polymarket answers a different question: who’s going to win.
“But that’s the question people really want to know,” Coplan said.
In total, about $3.6 billion was wagered on that one question
Money is also wagered on politics around the world on Polymarket: such as the Irish election results, and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro Ability to hold power.
“If you’re interested in geopolitics, it creates an incentive for you to dig deeper into what’s going on in Venezuela and get an edge,” Coplan said.
Sports are also extremely popular. You can buy and sell shares and withdraw cash at any time before resolution of an event.
“Unlike a betting site where you place a bet and it goes against the house, here you have a stake,” Coplan said. “You can almost say it’s similar to a stock, but it’s not a stock.”
Investigations by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the FBI
Coplan made a risky bet of his own when he built Polymarket in 2020. They did it fast – in just three months – and they did not seek regulatory approval as required by law. His main rival Kalshi did. The following year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees derivatives and futures trading, launched an investigation. PolyMarket cooperated and ultimately paid a $1.4 million fine for operating without registering with the CFTC. Coplan also agreed that the company would not have customers in the U.S.
Coplan said Polymarket has geo-blocked trading in the US and moved some operations out of the country.
“It wasn’t like, ‘Hey, you’re banned from doing business in the U.S.’ It’s like, ‘Until you get a license,'” Coplan said.
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Following the agreement, Polymarket was no longer to allow US users to trade on its platform. But many continued to do so, even though it officially violated the site’s terms of service. All they needed was a VPN connection to hide their computer’s location.
In 2024, in the final weeks of the Biden administration, Coplan got a rude awakening at home from the FBI.
“There was a lot of yelling and banging on doors,” Coplan said.
He was not arrested, but agents confiscated his phones and computers.
“New phone, who’s there?” Coplan later posted on social media.
future of forecasting markets
But with the new administration in the White House came a new appreciation for prediction markets. The government closed its investigation in July. Coplan purchased the fully licensed, legally compliant trading platform, paving the way for US clients to bet openly on Polymarket.
In August 2025, Coplan named the President’s son, Donald Trump Jr., to Polymarket’s advisory board. Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital Fund invested approximately $10 million in the company. Coplan said that having President Trump’s son on his advisory board has nothing to do with the security of his company.
“It (the administration) is very pro-innovation, and pro-crypto, and pro-polymarket, which is amazing,” Coplan said. He added, “I need help navigating this, okay? I’m a young entrepreneur.”
Last month, Polymarket received its biggest recognition yet when the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange announced it was investing $2 billion in Polymarket. Data from Polymarket will soon be integrated into the exchange to help investors and traders gain an edge.
Polymarket, valued at $9 billion, has not yet made a profit. It offers its main product – its predictions – for free, and does not charge fees on trades, at least not yet.
According to Coplan, thousands of people trade on PolyMarket and millions follow the prediction market possibilities. His goal is to reach one billion people, though he admits a lot needs to be done to get there.
“There are billions of people who could find value in this, which means unless those people have Polymarket, they’re not getting value from Polymarket, their work isn’t done,” Coplan said.
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