Using greenhouse gas emissions projections, the report estimates that annual damages to traditional markets alone will amount to $1.66 trillion by 2100.
The study, which began in 2021, brought together scientists from multiple disciplines: fisheries experts, coral reef researchers, biologists and climate economists. They assessed the costs of downstream climate change in four key sectors – corals, mangroves, fisheries and ports, measuring everything from reduced fisheries and direct market losses in marine trade to reductions in sea-based recreational industries.
The researchers also put a monetary figure on what economists call non-use value. “Something has value because it makes the world feel more livable, meaningful, or worth preserving, even if we never use it directly,” Bastien-Olvera said, referencing the fiscal merits of ecosystem enjoyment and the cultural loss caused by climate change. “Most people will never visit coral reefs during a full moon, or see deep-sea jellyfish glowing in complete darkness. But many people still care deeply that these things exist.”
The study said island economies, which are more dependent on seafood for nutrition, would face disproportionate financial and health impacts from ocean warming and acidification. “The countries that bear the most responsibility for climate change and have the greatest capacity to fix it are generally not the same countries that will experience the greatest or most near-term harm,” said Kate Rickey, co-author and climate professor at UCSD’s School of Global Policy and Strategy. Incorporating marine data into social cost of carbon assessments reveals the consequences of increased morbidity and mortality in low-income countries facing nutritional deficiencies.
Despite the scale of the scientific discovery, Bastian-Olvera and Rickey are optimistic that this data will be a wake-up call to international decision making. “I hope that the high value of ‘BlueSCC’ can inspire further investment in the adaptation and resilience of marine systems,” Rieke said, using the term ocean-based social cost of carbon and referring to investment opportunities in coral reef and mangrove restoration projects.
Meanwhile, Bastián-Olvera believes that focusing the framework on oceans also recognizes the long-term conservation perspectives of coastal communities, ocean scientists and indigenous peoples. “For too long, climate economics has treated ocean value as if it has zero value,” he said. “This is the first step towards finally admitting how wrong he was.”
This article originally appeared on Inside Climate News, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization covering climate, energy and the environment. Sign up for their newsletter here.
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