The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has apologized for accidentally publishing its economic forecast ahead of the Budget.
Being market-sensitive, details of the budget must be kept secret until the Chancellor announces it to the House of Commons.
But a “technical error” meant the full statement was released about 40 minutes before Rachel Reeves stood to give her policies, not after as intended.
The report appears to prematurely confirm a number of measures, including scrapping the two-child benefit limit, continuing the freeze on income tax caps for the next three years and a new payment-per-mile charge on electric vehicles.
The OBR immediately removed the forecast document from its website and launched an investigation into how it was published so quickly.
A spokesperson said, “We apologize for this technical error and have launched an investigation into how it occurred.” He said he would report to the OBR’s oversight board, the Treasury and the Commons Treasury Committee on how the error occurred.
OBR chairman Richard Hughes also personally apologized “for the error”, telling broadcasters “I will take subsequent action to ensure it does not happen again”.
Asked if he would resign, he said, “I’ve given you a statement, that’s all I have to say.”
Responding to the leak in the Politics Live studio, BBC political editor Chris Mason said: “The sheer absurdity of reading something the Chancellor has not yet announced in the Commons is shocking”.
BBC economics editor Faisal Islam said: “I think I need a red box, I can present the budget in the studio now… It tells you all the measures, it tells you all the big figures that we were just speculating about.”
The unexpected leak caused a reaction in the Commons chamber as Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) began, with Reeves seen looking at his phone with concern, before Treasury Minister Torsten Bell, who was sitting behind him, handed him his mobile phone as the news broke.
Before the notes were being distributed to the row of Cabinet ministers, James Murray, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, placed his phone in front of Reeves and Reeves copied a few words at the top of his budget speech.
Conservative MPs immediately began posting pages of the document on social media and Tory frontbenchers, including shadow chancellor Mel Stride, were seen whispering and taking notes.
Stride then raised a point of order at the end of PMQs, calling for an investigation into the leak, saying: “It is completely outrageous that this has happened and this leak could be a criminal act.”
It is worth noting that there had already been leaks and speculation about the policy in the media for several weeks ahead of the Budget, prompting the Chancellor to rebuke Deputy Speaker Nus Ghani.
The initial publication has caused such an uproar because the forecast data has an impact on financial markets and affects how much the government has to spend borrowing money, among other things.
Following the leak of the OBR report, there was a brief period of volatility in the UK bond market before gilt yields – which indicate the cost of government borrowing – fell below levels seen before the details were leaked.
Although this is the first time the OBR has made such a mistake, it is not the first time that parts of the budget have been leaked before they were even meant to be.
In 2013, the Evening Standard accidentally published details of George Osborne’s budget before he even got to his feet in the Commons, including details of major announcements on tax.
The then Labor leader Ed Miliband was reading a photocopy of the front page as Osborne was speaking and said the Chancellor “doesn’t need to bother coming” to the Commons.
In 1996, the Daily Mirror was sent the full contents of Chancellor Ken Clarke’s budget ahead of his speech.
Piers Morgan, who was editor of the newspaper at the time, published only some of the details in the next day’s newspaper, sending the rest back to the Treasury because it was boring.
At the time, Prime Minister John Major ordered an inquiry into the leaks and the Metropolitan Police investigated. But no one was arrested.
In 1947, Labor Chancellor Hugh Dalton was forced to resign after giving details of the budget to a journalist before giving his statement.
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