After talking to several officials in both industry and government, here’s an overview of what I believe is happening.
how did we get here
NASA has never been good at change, whether it was the end of Apollo to the space shuttle or the painful period from 2011 to 2020 when the shuttle stopped flying and the US space agency had to turn to Russia, cap in hand, to get its astronauts to the International Space Station.
As early as 2018, then-NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine was warning that a replacement for the space station would need to be found if the United States wanted to maintain a sustained human presence in low-Earth orbit. By December 2021, NASA had established support, typically at the level of a few hundred million dollars, for four separate companies to work on the development of private stations: Axiom Space, Blue Origin, NanoRacks (later becoming Voyager), and Northrop Grumman (which later withdrew).
Since then, each company has significantly changed its approach, and a new player, Vast Space, has joined the fray. Everyone was waiting for clarity from NASA on what exactly it wanted. This will come as part of the “requirements” document that will kick off the second round of the competition. It was generally expected that this second phase would eliminate the two private vendors from competition. NASA’s intention was to help companies develop their stations with funding and expertise and then become one of many customers.
Since 2021, the companies have faced a number of difficulties, and from the outside, it was never clear that any were on track to build a viable, independent station by 2030, when NASA intends to deorbit the space station.
At the same time, the American Space Agency has pulled back from starting the second phase of the competition. Then, last August, NASA’s acting director Sean Duffy issued a “directive” that brought significant amendments to the program. However, almost immediately, it seemed that key elements of this directive might be rolled back, leading to additional months of confusion.
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