The Jaguars could give their playoff chances a significant boost by defeating the weak Titans. Norm Hall/Getty Images
With cold-weather football officially here, teams in the playoff picture are looking to strengthen their chances. And NFL Draft positioning is available to teams at opposite ends of the postseason race.
Here’s a look at some of the biggest swing games in Week 13 using data from athleticNFL Playoff Simulator.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans are facing two very different outcomes. The Titans (1-10) have the worst record in the NFL and entered Sunday with the best odds to land the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft ahead of the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets. That probability will increase above 50 percent if the Jags suffer a loss.
The Jaguars (7-4) have won three of their last four games (two in overtime). They are in good position for a wild-card spot and will get extra insurance if they avoid defeat against the Titans. Jacksonville is one game behind the Colts in the AFC South and has its first game against the divisional leaders on deck in Week 14.
The Indianapolis Colts (8-3) had a chance to put themselves in prime position for the top seed in the AFC last week against the Chiefs. But Kansas City won in overtime, so the most important thing for the Colts this week is to bounce back with a win. As is true with every matchup in the NFL, this is easier said than done, but it may be especially true here.
Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is dealing with a fractured fibula. He Plan to play through this, But the top-ranked Houston Texans’ defense isn’t easy on the quarterback. In last week’s win against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, Houston forced three turnovers, sacked Allen eight times and held the offense to 12 points. The surging Texans have won four of their last five, and their defense leads the league in yards and points allowed per game. The Texans (6-5) are in third place in the AFC South, but a win in the first of two contests against the current division leaders would get them back into the race and increase their playoff chances to more than 50 percent.
The Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) are one game ahead of the Chiefs in the AFC West (and two games behind the Denver Broncos) and are in the midst of a tight wild-card race. Nothing is guaranteed on the remainder of Los Angeles’ schedule, which includes home games against the Philadelphia Eagles and Texans and road trips to the Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys and Broncos. After being defeated by the Jaguars in Week 11, it is time for the Chargers to return from their bye week and find their identity. A miss this week has put their playoff chances in jeopardy.
The 2-9 Raiders saw their chances of being picked No. 1 improve after losing to the Cleveland Browns last week. Another loss would strengthen those chances, but would still leave them behind the Titans.
Buffalo (7-4) has lost two of its last three games and turned the ball over nine times in that span. The offense has struggled in losses to the Miami Dolphins and Texans, and it’s clear that reigning MVP quarterback Josh Allen needs more support in the passing game. Earlier this week, the Bills signed veteran wide receiver Brandin Cooks, who they hope will help on that front. Keon Coleman, a 2024 second-round pick, has been playing healthy the past two weeks, and his status for this Sunday remains unknown.
However, winning on the road has not been easy for the Bills, as they have lost three of their last four away from Buffalo. Their chances of winning the AFC East have dropped to about 7 percent due to the emergence of the New England Patriots, but their chances of clinching at least a wild-card berth will jump to about 90 percent with a win this week. As for Pittsburgh (6-5), their playoff chances are already strengthened by the Baltimore Ravens’ loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on Thanksgiving night and a win on Sunday would put them over 50 percent. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers did not play in last week’s loss to the Chicago Bears due to a fractured wrist, but coach Mike Tomlin said he expects Rodgers to be ready for the Bills matchup.
The Jets (2-9) are third in line for the No. 1 pick, and good draft position could help a rebuild under new coach Aaron Glenn. Quarterback Justin Fields was held out for the team’s last game against the Ravens. A loss to Atlanta would increase the Jets’ chances of getting the top pick above 20 percent.
The Falcons (4-7) are already essentially out of both playoff contention and No. 1 pick competition, so they’re poised to advance in this game.
The NFC wild-card race is more crowded after the Bears’ win against the Eagles on Friday. San Francisco (8-4) beat the Carolina Panthers last week despite quarterback Brock Purdy’s three interceptions. He would be tested again with Cleveland star defensive end Myles Garrett, not to mention the adverse weather forecast, with which Purdy struggled in the pastIn the playoff race, the 49ers’ chances increase by about 20 percent, whether they win or lose,
As for the Browns (3-8), they’re basically out of the running for the No. 1 pick, increasing their chances to just 2 percent with the loss this week.
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