To capture the full value of his compensation package, Musk will have to achieve milestones that sound more like science fiction than corporate strategy. These include deploying one million robotaxis – autonomous vehicles that generate revenue without human drivers – and producing one million Optimus humanoid robots annually, powered by artificial intelligence (AI).
Musk will become the world’s first trillionaire, though in terms of stock options, if Tesla reaches a market capitalization of $8.5 trillion, more than six times the current $1.43 trillion. Even if he misses the target, Musk won’t be hurting for cash, but the real question is: Can he deliver?
Tesla fans trust Musk
Tesla shareholder Alexandra Merz, known as TeslaBoomerMama and who voted for the deal, strongly believes that Elon Musk is “the best executor on the planet.”
“I’m confident he’ll achieve milestones. He’s shown us firsthand what’s possible,” he recently told Bloomberg Television.
More than three-quarters of Tesla shareholders approved Musk’s pay deal last Thursday after a seven-year legal battle and despite opposition from some institutional investors, including CalPERS, the United States’ largest public pension fund.
CalPERS cited concerns about Musk’s increasing control over Tesla. Under the stock deal, he could secure 25% of shareholder voting rights, up from 13% today. Critics argue that if Musk owned a quarter of Tesla, he could exercise massive control, suppress dissent and dictate the company’s direction with minimal oversight.
Musk can hold a lot of power
Nell Mineo, vice president of Values Advisors, is one of the most vocal critics of Musk’s latest pay deal, arguing that it gives him too much control while diluting other shareholders.
“(It’s) more than an outrage, it’s a fraud,” Minow told DW, describing how Musk had moved Tesla from the business-friendly state of Delaware to Texas at great expense after his previous $56 billion pay package was twice overturned by Delaware courts.
“Then, also at enormous expense, he paid lobbyists, lawyers and legislators to pass a new law that severely limits the ability of shareholders to challenge the pay plan,” he said, adding that it gives the board the right to compensate Musk at its discretion, even if those goals are not met.
A worrying sign of extreme inequality
Others, like Joanna Bryson, a professor of ethics and technology at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, think Musk’s pay deal is emblematic of a broader problem in American governance — how the growth and power of Big Tech is creating extreme inequality, which she calls “unsustainable.”
“There is a huge security problem when individuals have more power than countries,” he told DW.
Bryson cited the examples of World War I and the American stock market bubble before 1929, when the world was as unequal as it is now.
“Anything that is giving disproportionately large amounts of wealth to any one person is creating entropy (moving from order to chaos).”
An even bigger potential issue is key person risk. In Musk’s case, it would have a negative impact on Tesla if he were unable to perform his role due to departure, illness, distraction or death.
Tesla’s success is largely linked to Musk’s leadership, vision and implementation. If he remains busy with his other ventures like SpaceX or XAI then the company may become vulnerable.
Musk accused of too much distraction
When Musk joined the Trump administration earlier this year as the head of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency – not the meme coin), he had already been criticized for taking his eye off the ball.
His brief tenure at DOGE led to adverse effects on Tesla’s operations, leading to protests outside factories, calls for boycotts, and even incidents of sabotage, disrupting production and shaking investor confidence.
Musk resigned from DOGE after only 130 days, and in July launched his new political movement, America Party, aimed at challenging the two-party system and reshaping the national discourse.
For some investors, the risk of distraction is no longer imaginary – it is unfolding in real time.
“If Musk is not motivated enough by his current stake, this (the new pay deal) will not be enough to convince him to ignore his many side hustles and stop making offensive political comments, which a recent Yale University study showed cost the company and shareholders millions in sales,” Minow told DW.
The board said the primary purpose of the bumper share deal is to maintain Musk’s focus on Tesla. He would not be able to sell the newly awarded stock for a decade after receiving it.
Doubt over near-term potential of robotics
Even if he remains laser-focused, critics argue that the goals themselves may be out of reach, especially the plan to build one million Optimus humanoid robots per year. While Tesla has demonstrated a basic functioning Optimus prototype, many experts believe the technology is still in its infancy.
Australian roboticist Rodney Brooks wrote in an essay Published in September Optimus and other humanoid robots are doomed to failure due to lack of agility.
“The general plan is that humanoid robots … will be able to do manual things as well as humans do, at a lower cost. In my opinion, to believe that this will happen any time within decades is pure wishful thinking.”
Other skeptics warn that setting such future milestones could be a way to justify Musk’s eye-watering compensation while keeping the publicity machine running. If Optimus fails to deliver on a large scale, it could undermine the credibility of the entire salary package.
The most optimistic forecasts for more advanced humanoids believe they could be ready in two to five years, leading Musk fans to speculate that a man could deliver on his promise.
“As a shareholder, I’d want Elon to have the keys to an army of bots more than anyone else,” Merz told Bloomberg. “Show me another CEO who has done even half of what Elon has accomplished.”
Whether Musk can juggle Tesla, politics, and a robot army is the trillion-dollar question. But one thing’s for sure: we’re going to need colors and a lot of popcorn to see it unfold.
Edited by: Uwe Hessler
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