Michigan basketball is forcing teams to take the exact shots modern analytics hate

LAS VEGAS – On his way to Michigan’s locker room inside Michelob Ultra Arena from his postgame press conference Monday night, Dusty Mays pulled up a related stat on his phone.

He already knew the numbers were good. What he found confirmed it.

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Michigan defeated San Diego State 94–54 to open the Players Era Championship and improve to 5–0. The Wolverines later doubled the margin of victory limit used for potential tiebreakers for the event. They’ll face Auburn on Tuesday (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT).

Michigan dominated in its first game in Vegas, holding the Aztecs to 27% shooting. Michigan wants to force teams to take the shots that analytics like least: mid-range jumpers. San Diego State took a group on Monday.

“Can you earn enough to beat them?” San Diego State coach Brian Dutcher was surprised afterward. “That’s the question.”

I am convinced that the answer is no.

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“We’re big at the rim,” May said. “I think when you get into the paint and Ade (Mara) hits a couple of them and Moraes (Johnson Jr.) comes out of nowhere and gets vertical and blocks the shot, the next thing you’re looking around.

“And I think the perimeter guys did a great job of scrambling, flying around and just playing smart basketball and covering each other.”

Modern basketball favors catch-and-shoot 3s and shots closer to the rim. That’s what May wants for most of Michigan’s field goals. Naturally, he wants to deprive opponents of those looks, forcing them to take long 2-point shots, floaters and other types of high-risk, low-reward attempts.

Michigan did that on Monday and has remained that way for most of this young season. May said he has been “pleased” with the way Michigan has executed defensive game plans so far. Scrolling through his phone he found the data. In Michigan’s previous game, Wednesday’s win over Middle Tennessee, opponents made only 13 of 39 mid-range shots and 7 of 29 floaters.

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“Yeah, we’ll take that,” May said, laughing.

Watching film as Michigan prepared, Dutcher saw a path to offensive success. His team made enough floaters and short jumpers to go around early, but the Aztecs couldn’t sustain it.

May said he told his players before this game that his “plan” had caused them to only lose one or two games combined between his seven years as head coach and Michigan assistant Mike Boynton Jr.’s seven years as head coach.

“We agreed to give up those (mid-range) shots,” May said. Teams lose games for many reasons, he said, but half-baked defense has rarely been the reason. “Our plan based on abandoning middies and floaters has lost us one game in seven years.”

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