It will be no easy task to replace Ali Larijani, Iran’s top national security official, after he was killed in an Israeli strike on Tuesday.
The veteran politician was considered by many analysts to be the most important decision-maker in the country, a skilled negotiator who could work across different camps within the regime and internationally.
By law, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian will appoint the next national security adviser and there is speculation that influential regime figure Saeed Jalili could step into the role.
Analysts say that there is a strong preference to give this post to one of the representatives of the Supreme Leader in the National Security Council. Larijani’s death has left Jalili as a possible replacement – he has previously served as National Security Advisor, was a chief nuclear negotiator and is a current member of the Expediency Discrimination Council.
Arash Azizi, an Iran analyst and author who is also a lecturer and historian at Yale University, said, “Jalili is a staunch fundamentalist, the leader of the regime’s most vocal anti-Western and extremist class.”
However, Jalili may be less adept at working different parts of the system than Larijani.
“Their harshness and extremism could become a weakness for the regime and undermine its ability to deal with those serious crises,” Azizi said.
The elite Revolutionary Guards “hold most of the real power in Iran today” and so they want “someone with more military experience who might be more suitable for the current moment,” Azizi said.
Whoever is chosen as Larijani’s replacement will have a key role in any talks to end the war.
Following Larijani’s death, Jalili posted a message saying, “These actions will not save the weakened enemy from the quagmire in which he is trapped; rather, they will accelerate the process of his defeat and humiliation,” state-affiliated Tasnim news agency reported.
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