Last year’s game had the lowest stakes compared to recent contests and yet it became an instant classic in the rivalry. Michigan upset eventual national champion Ohio State and a fight broke out on the field after Michigan tried to plant its flag in Ohio Stadium.
This year, the Buckeyes (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) and Wolverines (9-2, 7-1) are back in Ann Arbor to play a high-stakes game Saturday at noon ET.
For Ohio State, revenge remains. The top-ranked Buckeyes have not beaten Michigan since 2019 and are trying to avoid their first five-game losing streak in the rivalry since the 1920s.
Michigan is at stake to make the College Football Playoff. The Wolverines were ranked No. 15 in the latest CFP Top 25, opening the possibility that they could add a win over a No. 1 team to their resume.
And, as is often the case, Ohio State and Michigan are playing for Big Ten title berths. If Ohio State wins, it goes to Indianapolis. If Michigan wins, it needs an Oregon loss to Washington to go, but the chances are there.
This is the game, bragging rights are on the line, emotions are high and there’s never a dull moment athleticThe No. 1 college football rivalry.
“It’s that week,” Ohio State defensive end Kenyatta Jackson said. “That’s all. There are no words to say.”
Below, athleticCameron Teague Robinson and Austin Meek discuss the key questions ahead of this year’s performance.
Which coach is under more pressure?
Teague Robinson: It’s definitely Ryan Day, which is crazy to think about after winning a national championship. It has won 15 straight games since a loss at Michigan a year ago, has the best defense in the country and has four potential first-round picks on the roster, yet it’s still obviously days.
The last time Ohio State lost five consecutive games to Michigan was in the 1920s. If Day somehow reaches that mark with a loss this Saturday, he will lose a huge chunk of the goodwill he earned by winning the national championship last year. This may seem a little harsh, but the reality of the situation is that Day has to beat Michigan. It is part of the job requirements. It’s the only blemish on an otherwise brilliant career.
After Ohio State’s loss last season, another loss this year, against a freshman quarterback and a banged-up running back, would be devastating to Ohio State’s claim on the rivalry.
Humble: The answer is until the day it beats Michigan. But if Ohio State wins the pendulum will swing faster, especially if the Buckeyes get a big win. Moore’s two wins against Ohio State, including one when he was filling in for Jim Harbaugh, are weight-bearing wins for his tenure as head coach. If Michigan loses the allure of Ohio State, it will be difficult to overshadow Michigan’s uneven performance over the past two years.
Rational Michigan fans understand that this run against the Buckeyes won’t last forever. Losing to No. 1 Ohio State with a new quarterback and a banged-up running back rotation won’t have much of an impact against Moore, but losing coaches always face extreme backlash — just ask Day. Whatever Day has done to distance himself from last year’s defeat, there is still pressure on him to snap this four-game losing streak against Michigan, which is heightened by the fact that Ohio State is a heavy favorite for the second year in a row. If Ohio State wins, the pressure shifts to Michigan.
What have we learned about these teams over the past month?
Humble: The schedule makes Michigan a difficult team to assess. In its last four games, Michigan has faced four opponents who are 5-27 overall in Big Ten play, with only one solid win, a 45-20 victory at Maryland last Saturday.
Nonetheless, we’ve learned that Michigan’s running game could be useful without Justise Haynes, who is not expected to play on Saturday. We have seen continued improvement from Michigan’s defense since the loss against USC. We’ve learned that Michigan has a rising star at wide receiver in Andrew Marsh, and we’ve also seen the progress of quarterback Bryce Underwood over the past two weeks. It is worrisome that Michigan was not able to overcome weaker teams on its schedule, but Maryland’s win was a step in the right direction.
Teague Robinson: Similar to Michigan, the Buckeyes have not played a tough schedule in the last month. In fact, Michigan will be the first team above .500 the Buckeyes play after a 34–16 win at Illinois on October 11.
Still, Ohio State has dominated every game. In the process, we’ve seen Ohio State’s offense become one of the most efficient in the Diné era. Even now, with injuries at wide receiver, the Buckeyes know their defense has shown no real weaknesses and is good enough for them to win games.
How will injuries affect the game?
Humble: The status of Ohio State’s wide receivers will impact Michigan’s defensive scheme. If Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate play, cornerbacks Jhye Hill and Zeke Berry may have to win some one-on-one matchups. If one is out, it will be easier for Michigan to contain the other without leaving anyone on the island.
On the Michigan side, running back Jordan Marshall returns after missing the Maryland game due to a shoulder injury. The absence of Haynes means Michigan’s offense is missing its home run threat, although Marshall and Bryson Kuzdzal are more than capable. Michigan also may be without fullback Max Bredesen, whose blocks were key in leading to many of Michigan’s long runs this season. Bredesen was using a scooter to get around Michigan’s facility this week, but said he’s going to do everything in his power to play.
Final injury notes from Michigan: Safety Rod Moore, the hero of Michigan’s 2023 win against the Buckeyes, will not play. It’s a disappointing ending for a player who came back from two knee surgeries to play in three games but will now miss the final six games of his senior season. It’s certainly not the ending he had in mind, but it’s poetic that, barring a decision to pursue another year of eligibility, his last snap would have been his game-clinching interception two years ago against Ohio State.
Teague Robinson: While Michigan is dealing with a plethora of injuries, Ohio State is banging out its best position, receiver.
The injuries to Smith and Tate have dominated the media questions and storylines in Columbus over the past two weeks. Tate has missed the last three games. Smith did not play in the second half against UCLA and sat out last week against Rutgers. However, Monday brought some updates, as Smith told safety Caleb Downs on his podcast, that he “should be good to go” against Michigan. Day said on the radio show “Buckeye Roundtable” that both are trending in the right direction. Despite the lack of clarity at times, Day said both players will get “physical and mental reps” this week, meaning they will practice in some capacity.
It remains to be seen whether he will play, with no clear answer until the availability report comes two hours before kick-off. If he plays, it will be a big boost for an Ohio State offense that has been difficult to stop since its complete passing attack.
Ohio State has been defeated elsewhere as well. Nickel corner Lorenzo Styles Jr. left the Rutgers game due to a shoulder injury. Day had no update, but said he would practice this week. If he doesn’t play, the Buckeyes will miss a player who is also capable of playing safety to hide in coverage, which will be important against freshman quarterback Underwood.
What factors will make the difference for each team?
Humble: I’ll start with the obvious. Underwood has made some careless throws the last two weeks – that can’t happen against Ohio State. Michigan needs to avoid sacks, penalties and negative plays. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale needs to get his defense involved, which means applying enough pressure to keep quarterback Julian Cynon uncomfortable but not trying to do too much.
I have a weird feeling this game could turn on a special teams game, which should make Michigan fans nervous. Kicker Dominic Zawada and punter Hudson Hollenbeck have been inconsistent this year, and Michigan’s return units have been a mess. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game comes down to a return, a buried punt or a last-second kick.
Teague Robinson: Is it too much to say about the health of Ohio State? I believe Ohio State’s defense is its strength and its success will depend on stopping the run and confusing Underwood. This should also include Underwood’s legs. However, as we saw last year, the offense must have a pulse.
This year, the offense is more efficient and Sain gives them a more accurate passing attack. Ohio State has been forced to compete against Michigan over the past few years, suffering four consecutive losses. This year, the advantage is in the passing game and Day is ready to highlight it. If that’s the case, the Buckeyes need the play of Smith or Tate to open up everything else.
Who is going to win?
Humble: Ohio State 19, Michigan 16
I’m getting a low scoring atmosphere out of this game. I don’t think either team will have much success moving the ball, especially if weather is a factor. People have spent the last year telling Ohio State that the way to beat Michigan is to throw the ball to Smith and Tate, but given injury concerns and Michigan’s good-not-great interior defensive line, I wonder if the Buckeyes will need to grind out a few yards on the ground. I’m starting to think Michigan has a good chance to win, but the Wolverines have been so inconsistent for me that I can’t pick them outright.
Teague Robinson: Ohio State 21, Michigan 14
I went back and forth on this for a whole year. I’ve been picking Michigan since the offseason because, in theory, it’s hard for me to pick something if I’m proven wrong every year.
Yet here I am thinking about the football side of things and leaning toward Ohio State. I also think we’re in a low-scoring game, but I believe Day has a different approach this year. When it matters most, defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will get a stop, and Day will rely on his elite receivers and Heisman candidate quarterback to win the game.
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